焦煤焦炭年度报告（2026）：政策托底下的供需再平衡

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not include the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the coking coal price center is expected to remain stable or rise slightly. Policy regulation may shift towards dynamic supply - demand balance, and the import volume of Mongolian coal is a key variable affecting market supply. The inventory structure may initially suppress prices but could support price increases later with policy implementation and demand improvement. Coking coal price is bounded by policy at the bottom and limited by steel demand and imported coal supply at the top [41]. - In 2026, coke has weak self - driving force, and its price mainly follows coking coal. The inventory transfer affects the price, and the implementation of energy - consumption standards will optimize the industry structure in the long run. Coke price is limited by steel demand and mill profits at the top and supported by coking coal cost and capacity - reduction policies at the bottom [44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the double - coking futures market showed a pattern of "first decline, then rise, and then wide - range sideways oscillation." In the first half of the year, due to supply - demand imbalance, prices declined unilaterally. From July, prices rebounded strongly due to policy drives. During the "Golden September and Silver October," demand was mediocre, and in the traditional off - season, downstream demand was weak, but policy expectations supported the market [5][6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Expectations - End - of - year important meetings and policies boost the expectations for 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference set key tasks for 2026, and the National Fiscal Work Conference proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. There are also policies in market regulation, real - estate tax, consumer subsidies, and project approvals [7]. - Supply - guarantee and environmental - protection policies affect industry expectations. The energy supply guarantee work for the heating season was arranged, and the benchmark levels for clean and efficient coal utilization were released, which will increase enterprise costs [8][9]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - Domestic Coal Production: In 2025, the growth rate of domestic raw coal production slowed down, and imports were restricted. From January to November, raw coal output increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and coal imports decreased by 11.94% year - on - year. In 2026, total supply is expected to be stable, and imports will be used to balance the domestic market [11][12]. - Coking Coal Supply: As of December 26, 2025, the supply of domestic coking coal tended to be stable. Mine inventory increased, production decreased slightly, and the production of coal - washing plants was lower than the previous year. The supply - demand relationship was loose [14]. - Coking Coal Imports: From January to November 2025, China's coking coal imports decreased by 5.67% year - on - year, with the import pattern concentrating on Mongolia and Russia. Mongolian coal is expected to be the main source of incremental supply in 2026, while Russian coal supply will be stable [16]. - Coking Coal Inventory: In 2025, the inventory of sample mines increased in the first half and fourth quarters and decreased in the third quarter. The inventory of coal - washing plants and ports fluctuated little. In 2026, inventory trends depend on demand recovery and supply - side policies [23]. - Downstream Coking Coal Strategy: In 2025, independent coking enterprises and steel mills adopted a "low - inventory" strategy. Coking enterprises' replenishment was affected by profits and seasons, while steel mills' replenishment was passive and phased [24]. - Coke Production: From January to November 2025, the cumulative coke output increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The production of steel - mill - affiliated coking plants was stable, while that of independent coking enterprises was more elastic. The over - capacity pattern will continue in 2026 [26]. - Coke Consumption: In 2025, strong demand in industries such as automobiles and shipbuilding supported hot - metal production, driving up coke consumption. In 2026, terminal demand will continue to be structurally differentiated [32]. - Coke Inventory: In 2025, coke inventory transferred from coking plants to downstream in the middle of the year and became looser in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the inventory structure will remain loose under weak demand [35]. - Coking Enterprise Profits: In 2025, independent coking enterprises' profits mostly remained below the break - even point. The industry will remain in a state of "high capacity, low profit" in 2026, and prices will follow coking coal [37]. - Exchange Contract Adjustment: The exchange modified the coking coal contract information, including quality indicators, regional premium and discount, and contract rules, to improve the spot - futures price relationship [39][40]. 3.4 Future Outlook - Coking Coal: In 2026, the coking coal price center may be stable or rise slightly, affected by policies, imports, inventory, and price linkages [41]. - Coke: In 2026, coke price mainly follows coking coal, affected by inventory transfer and industry policies. The price is limited by steel demand at the top and supported by cost and policies at the bottom [44].