日本消费行业11月跟踪报告：“黑五”刺激消费，免税增长乏力

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Japanese consumer sector is experiencing a mixed recovery, with Black Friday promotions boosting consumption, but duty-free sales showing negative growth [1][3] - Consumer confidence in Japan has improved significantly, with the consumer confidence index rising to 37.5 in November, the highest since April 2024 [2][9] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since 1995, indicating a shift towards normalizing monetary policy [2][11] Macroeconomic Summary - The consumer confidence index increased by 1.7 points from October to November, with notable improvements in perceptions of overall living conditions and income growth expectations [2][9] - November's core CPI remained at 3.0%, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 44 consecutive months, while the overall CPI for goods rose by 4.0% [2][11] - The actual wage in October contracted by 0.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month's 1.3% [2][9] Industry Summary - Black Friday promotions have become a key driver for retail, with companies leveraging exclusive member discounts and early online sales to attract customers [3][15] - Domestic consumers are exhibiting frugal spending habits, focusing on value for money, which has led to a contraction in daily expenditures [3][15] - Duty-free sales have turned negative, primarily due to a decline in high-value goods, although consumables like cosmetics and food continue to grow at double-digit rates [3][15] Essential Companies - In the essential goods retail sector, November same-store sales for PPIH, Aeon, and 7-Eleven increased by 6.9%, 6.3%, and 2.7% respectively, driven by higher average transaction values [4][18] - Welcia and Matsukiyo Cocokara reported same-store sales growth of 4.1% and 3.6% respectively, with customer traffic increasing slightly [4][20] - The beverage sector saw a decline in sales for Suntory and Asahi, with Asahi's sales dropping by 21% due to a cyberattack affecting operations [4][21] Optional Companies - The restaurant sector performed well, with notable same-store sales growth for various chains, including Sally's and Skylark, with increases of 19.0% and 8.9% respectively [5][27] - Clothing sales also showed strong performance, with same-store sales for companies like Shimamura and Uniqlo increasing by 16.0% and 7.6% respectively, driven by seasonal demand [5][29] - Department store sales reached 521.4 billion yen in November, a 0.9% increase year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of growth [5][34] Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector saw most stocks rise from November 28 to December 30, with the service industry and food and beverage sectors increasing by 4.3% and 2.8% respectively [6] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with optimistic profit outlooks, such as Mercari and Kirin Holdings, which have shown strong operational performance [6][6]