美国经济：冷暖交织下的“K型鸿沟”

Economic Performance - The U.S. economy has shown resilience with a real GDP annualized growth rate consistently above 2% in the first three quarters of 2025, excluding tariff impacts[5] - However, there is a stark contrast between macroeconomic data and micro-level experiences, with declining employment market activity and falling consumer confidence[5] Structural Issues - The economic growth is characterized by a "K-shaped" divergence, where a narrow prosperity in certain sectors, like AI, contrasts with widespread slowdown in others[5] - AI-related investments contributed 0.8 percentage points to the real GDP growth, while personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.8 percentage points, indicating a dual-driven economic model[13] Industry Disparities - Traditional cyclical industries, particularly real estate, are experiencing downturns due to high interest rates and housing prices, with residential investment maintaining negative growth[17] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with mortgage burdens at historical highs, limiting demand and investment willingness[17] Consumer Behavior - Wealth concentration is evident, with the top 20% of income earners holding nearly 90% of stock and mutual fund assets, exacerbating the K-shaped economic divide[23] - Consumer spending is increasingly reliant on high-end sectors, while essential goods and services show weaker performance, reflecting structural imbalances in consumption[34] Political Implications - The upcoming 2026 elections are expected to focus on improving living standards, with the Trump administration likely to adopt a dual strategy of encouraging AI investment and enhancing social welfare[36] - The administration's policies may aim to address economic disparities to regain public support, especially as approval ratings decline[36] Risks - Potential risks include aggressive policies leading to economic downturns, unexpected tariff expansions causing global economic slowdowns, and geopolitical tensions increasing asset price volatility[47]