化工日报-20251231

Report Investment Ratings - Bullish: Methanol (★☆☆), PVC (★☆☆) [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Propylene, Polypropylene, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Glass (White Stars) [1] Core Views - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are complex, with different products showing various trends. Some products face short - term pressure but have medium - to long - term improvement expectations, while others are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][4] - Different products have different driving factors, including raw materials, production capacity changes, and downstream demand rhythms [4] Summary by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures oscillated. Downstream polypropylene demand recovery is limited due to cost and device status. Chemical downstream factories' procurement improved slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures moved narrowly. Polyethylene supply may increase, and downstream demand is weak. Polypropylene production is expected to rise slightly, and short - term demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures were weak. Port inventory is high, but there are expectations of supply - demand improvement. Consider long - spread arbitrage in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures moved narrowly. Cost has no obvious positive impact, and there is an inventory build - up expectation [3] Polyester - PX prices may adjust in the short term but have strong medium - term expectations. PTA is mainly driven by raw materials [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak short - term fundamental, but may improve in the second quarter. It is under long - term pressure [4] - Short fiber has a good long - term supply - demand pattern. Bottle chip is affected by production capacity and cost [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures were strong. Import volume is expected to decrease, and the port may enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium term [5] - Urea supply may increase later, and the post - holiday market may decline slightly [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC futures were strong. Supply may increase, demand is low, and inventory pressure is high. It may move in a range [6] - Caustic soda futures declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand growth is limited [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures moved narrowly. Supply pressure is large, and there is a long - term supply - demand surplus risk [7] - Glass futures oscillated. The industry is de - capacitying, and demand is insufficient [7]