有色金属日报-20251231

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicates a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggests a short - term equilibrium in the market trend and poor trading operability [1] - Alumina: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, implies a bullish - leaning trend with limited trading operability [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, shows a short - term balanced market trend and poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicates a bullish - leaning trend with limited trading opportunities [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] Core Views of the Report - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policy, showing different trends. Some metals may continue to fluctuate, while others may face price adjustments or trend changes [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper futures closed with a negative candlestick in a volatile manner. The spot copper price was 98,820 yuan, with a Shanghai discount of 190 yuan. The LME market has a large number of in - the - money call options. After the holiday, wait for overseas institutions to revise their copper price expectations. Continue the previous options combination strategy, and pay attention to smelter production schedules, social inventory changes, and trading volume shrinkage, as the price may continue to decline [2] Aluminum and Alumina - The Shanghai aluminum futures rose, and the spot discounts in East, Central, and South China widened. The fundamentals of the aluminum market lack driving force, but the upward trend following the sector remains. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average, and pay attention to the resistance at 23,000 yuan. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by 100 yuan to 22,000 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years. The alumina market is in significant surplus. With the decline in bauxite prices, costs have room to fall, and there is still profit in cash - cost accounting. In the short term, the decline of alumina spot prices is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [3] Zinc - The TC is at a low level, smelter maintenance continues, and the import window is closed. The supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the overall rebound trend remains. The consumption outlook for January is moderately optimistic. With the start of the 14th Five - Year Plan, there are high expectations for a good start. National subsidies may return, and there is still demand for downstream pre - holiday stockpiling. Consumption may not be weak in the off - season, but production is still a drag, constraining the upside of Shanghai zinc. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Another Section) - Maintenance of primary aluminum delivery brand smelters continues, and the SMM aluminum social inventory is less than 20,000 tons, supporting the price increase. However, battery enterprises conduct year - end inventory checks and suspend spot procurement for 3 - 7 days. Shanghai lead faces obvious pressure around 17,500 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is stronger in the domestic market than in the overseas market, and the spot import window is open. Affected by low - priced overseas aluminum ingots, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom near the cost, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel price rose and then fell, with active market trading. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reduced the nickel ore quota and will revise the mineral reference price formula in early 2026. Near the end of the year, the downstream's purchasing intention weakened, and the continuous high spot premium reduced traders' willingness to hold goods. The spot trading was relatively quiet. In the stainless - steel market, the rising ferro - nickel price pushed up the cost, but the overall profit was restored. The previous stainless - steel production cuts had limited impact, the social inventory decreased, and the downstream's purchasing intention was mainly in the form of more inquiries. The high - nickel ferro - nickel was quoted at 912 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price began to show a rebound transmission. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 892,000 tons. Due to policy disturbances in the nickel market, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [7] Tin - The trading volume of Shanghai tin futures decreased to the level at the beginning of December. The spot tin was reported at 326,450 yuan, with a real - time premium of 1,800 yuan. There is no new news about the geopolitical situation recently. Pay attention to the mining conference that may be held around the New Year. The volatility has converged from a high level. Hold the 350,000 sell - call options again and observe the adjustment range [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price opened high and then fell, with active market trading but large differences. Some holders' previous goods have been pre - ordered, and there are frequent inquiries. However, the mid - and downstream's acceptance of high prices is limited. They have sufficient pre - holiday stockpiling and are cautious about high prices. The overall market trading is relatively quiet. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 110,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 200 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,600 tons to 40,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 52,000 tons. The inventory in the mid - stream is relatively high, providing some support to the spot market. The latest Australian ore price is 1,565 US dollars, and the ore price remains strong. Technically, the lithium price has entered the trend - ending stage, and risk prevention should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. Recently, some silicon enterprises have reduced production, but the overall scale is less than expected. On the demand side, the polysilicon production in January is expected to decrease slightly month - on - month, and the operating rate of organic silicon is expected to continue to decline under the implementation of emission - reduction policies. The latest SMM industrial silicon social inventory is 555,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons month - on - month, and the Xinjiang factory inventory still has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Overall, the recent strengthening of the industrial silicon futures price and the divergence between the futures and spot prices are due to the expected large - scale production cuts at the end of December. However, the implementation is slow, and the demand is under marginal pressure. The trend may turn to oscillatory consolidation, and further observe the changes in Xinjiang's production [10] Polysilicon - The trading activity of polysilicon futures has declined. After a pre - holiday correction, it turned to oscillation. On the spot side, the price of N - type compound feedstock remains stable at 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the polysilicon production in January is expected to decrease slightly month - on - month. However, compared with the recent production cuts in the silicon wafer sector, the polysilicon market still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation. In the expected dimension, the industry's anti - involution trend continues, and policy support is sustainable. With stricter trading supervision, the futures price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [11]