能化行业反内卷推进之路：产业结构化升级

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is on the path of "anti - involution" through industrial structural upgrading, including measures such as "reducing oil and increasing chemicals", eliminating small and medium - sized refineries, and upgrading and transforming ethylene, polyolefin, chlor - alkali, and other industries [5][6][7]. - The textile industry is undergoing technological upgrading and industry structure optimization, with regions like Xinjiang and Southwest China leading the transformation, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang maintaining their positions [34][43]. - For profitable and supply - guaranteeing products, policies such as energy - efficiency requirements and supply - guarantee policies are being implemented to promote anti - involution [63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Industry "Anti - Involution" Focus - Who needs anti - involution: Loss - making industries such as refineries, polyolefins, textile terminals, and the chlor - alkali industry [5]. - How to achieve anti - involution: Through measures like "reducing oil and increasing chemicals", including存量改造, technological upgrading, and phasing out old facilities. Profitable enterprises are more likely to carry out technological transformation and upgrading, while loss - making enterprises are passively eliminated [5]. - Impact of "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" in 2026: Gasoline demand has reached its peak, and it is difficult to further reduce oil and increase chemicals with existing stock devices. Eliminating small and medium - sized refineries has become inevitable, but the impact on the energy and chemical industry is limited [6][7][10]. 3.2 Polyolefin and Chlor - Alkali Industries - Polyolefins: For PE, state - owned and coal - based processes are expected to lead the device renewal, with about 11.2% of state - owned coal - based processes potentially affected. For PP, about 14.4% of coal - based devices need to be renovated, while PDH devices are less affected by policies [21][24][27]. - Chlor - alkali industry: In the caustic soda industry, old devices over 20 years old, accounting for nearly 7.94%, need attention. In the PVC industry, attention should be paid to externally purchased calcium carbide - based devices and old devices [28][31][30]. 3.3 Textile Industry - PTA and coal - based ethylene glycol: The PTA industry's energy - efficiency level is high, with most existing devices better than the benchmark. For coal - based ethylene glycol, devices put into production before 2022 may need to be renovated, with about 556 tons potentially requiring upgrading [39][40][42]. - Textile industry transformation and upgrading: Xinjiang and Southwest China are leading the transformation due to cost and resource advantages. The vortex spinning process has cost advantages and potential for long - term cost reduction through domestic substitution of equipment [43][54][58]. 3.4 Profitable and Supply - Guaranteeing Products - Synthetic ammonia (urea): The "Supply - guarantee and Price - stabilization" policy has a higher priority than the "Energy - consumption Dual Control" policy. The impact of the 2025 energy - efficiency requirements on the industry is limited, and attention should be paid to the transformation and upgrading of fixed - bed devices in Shanxi [68][69][70]. - Methanol: The 2025 energy - efficiency requirements have a limited impact on existing methanol production capacity. If capacity elimination occurs, attention should be paid to state - owned coal - based methanol devices over 10 years old [74][75][76].