——12月PMI数据点评：PMI重回荣枯线上，出口拉动高技术生产

Group 1: PMI Performance - December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, marking an 8-month high and exceeding Bloomberg and Reuters' consensus estimate of 49.2%[2] - The PMI increase is characterized by strong structural certainty, although total economic uncertainty remains[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI surged by 2.4 percentage points to 52.5%, indicating positive growth trends in the sector[7] Group 2: Demand and Production - New orders contributed 53% to the PMI increase, while production contributed 47%[7] - New orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, and new export orders increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, reaching a new high since April[7] - Production index significantly improved by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, indicating strong expansion momentum[7] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - Main raw material purchase price index slightly decreased to 53.1%, while the factory price index rose to 48.9%[7] - Raw material inventory index increased to 47.8%, and finished goods inventory index rose to 48.2%, reflecting synchronized supply and demand improvements[7] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - Non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2%, returning to expansion territory, primarily driven by a 3.2 percentage point rise in construction PMI to 52.8%[7] - The construction sector's improvement is attributed to favorable weather conditions and accelerated project progress, although funding and project availability remain concerns[7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the manufacturing PMI increase is uncertain, with potential risks in demand and external economic conditions[6] - The need for stable growth remains significant as 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating potential policy support to stabilize the economy[2]