2025年债市复盘系列之二：再见2025：信用债复盘

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, credit bond coupon value returned, and the expansion of ETFs brought a structural market. Credit risk events occurred sporadically, and the policy focus was on debt resolution and risk prevention. The net financing scale of credit bonds increased by nearly one trillion, and yields rose across the board [4][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Annual Summary: Credit Bond Coupon Value Returned, and ETF Expansion Brought a Structural Market - Throughout 2025, the credit bond market was affected by various factors such as capital prices, policies, and market sentiment. The credit spread showed a trend of widening, narrowing, and then fluctuating. Overall, the 1y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield was reported at 1.78%, with the credit spread narrowing by 34BP to 23BP; the 3y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield rose by 6BP to 1.97%, with the credit spread narrowing by 21BP to 28BP; the 5y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield rose by 14BP to 2.18%, with the credit spread narrowing by 21BP to 37BP; the 10y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield rose by 30BP to 2.65%, with the credit spread widening by 2BP to 63BP [4][8][9]. II. Annual Major Events: Credit Risk Events Occurred Sporadically, and the Policy Focus was on Debt Resolution and Risk Prevention (1) Urban Investment: Debt Resolution and Arrears Clearance Accelerated, and Credit Risk Sentiment Decreased - Hot Events: In 2025, debt resolution continued, and two trillion in replacement bonds were issued, with Jiangsu issuing 251.1 billion yuan. The clearance of arrears accelerated, using both fiscal and financial means. The number of non - standard credit risk events in urban investment decreased significantly, and Inner Mongolia exited the list of key provinces, while Jilin met the exit criteria [21][22][28]. - Regulatory Policies: The central government supported the improvement and implementation of a package of debt - resolution plans. It required the implementation of debt replacement policies, regarded non - increase of implicit debt as an "iron - clad discipline", accelerated the stripping of the government financing function of local financing platforms, and promoted market - oriented transformation, as well as the clearance of local government arrears to enterprises [2][33]. (2) Real Estate: Vanke's Bond Extension at the End of the Year Slightly Exceeded Market Expectations, and Policies Continuously Promoted the Market to Stabilize and Recover - Hot Events: In 2025, Shenzhen Metro Group provided over 20 billion yuan in loans to Vanke to help it pay the principal and interest of its bonds in the public market. However, due to limited remaining credit, Vanke faced liquidity pressure and announced bond extensions at the end of the year. Only the motion to extend the grace period was passed in the bondholder meetings [39][40]. - Regulatory Policies: In 2025, real estate policies focused on demand, supply, and real - estate enterprise financing, aiming to promote market stability and build a new development model. On the demand side, it was necessary to release the potential of rigid and improved housing demand; on the supply side, high - quality urban renewal and the construction of "good houses" were emphasized; on the enterprise side, the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises were supported, and the risk of debt default was prevented [44][46][47]. (3) Finance: AVIC Industry Finance, Tianan Property Insurance, and Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank Attracted Attention, and Active Measures were Taken to Prevent Financial Risks - Hot Events: The Ministry of Finance issued 500 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to support large banks in replenishing core tier - one capital. AVIC Industry Finance announced voluntary delisting, and the off - market bond payment plan was not approved. Tianan Property Insurance and Tianan Life Insurance defaulted on their bonds, and Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank's secondary capital bonds were significantly discounted [3][50][58]. - Regulatory Policies: In 2025, the central government adhered to preventing and resolving key financial risks and strictly adhered to the bottom - line of preventing systemic financial risks. It also issued high - quality development management measures for industries such as trust companies, asset management companies, commercial banks, and insurance companies to standardize their development [3][59][60]. (4) Others: The Science and Technology Bond and Credit Bond ETF Markets Developed Rapidly, and the Bond "South - Bound Connect" was Planned to be Extended to Non - Bank Institutions - Bond Market "Science and Technology Board": Policies required the construction of a "science and technology board" in the bond market to support the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds. In 2025, the net financing of science and technology innovation bonds increased by nearly one trillion yuan year - on - year [65]. - Credit Bond ETF: In 2025, 8 benchmark - making credit bond ETFs and 24 science and technology innovation bond ETFs were listed, and the market scale expanded rapidly, reaching over 45 billion yuan by the end of the year [70]. - Bond "South - Bound Connect": The scope of domestic investors in the Bond "South - Bound Connect" was planned to be expanded to non - bank institutions, and Hong Kong market bonds attracted market attention [72]. III. Review of the Primary and Secondary Markets of Credit Bonds: The Net Financing Scale Increased by Nearly One Trillion, and Yields Rose Across the Board (1) Primary Market: Industrial Bonds and Financial Bonds were the Main Supply Sources, and Urban Investment Bonds Continued to Shrink - In 2025, the net financing of credit bonds increased by 953.8 billion yuan year - on - year. Industrial bonds, supported by new science and technology bond policies, were the main supply source. The issuance of financial bonds accelerated in the third quarter due to the strong performance of the equity market, while the net supply of urban investment bonds continued to shrink [73]. (2) Secondary Market: Yields Generally Rose, Credit Spreads Narrowed Significantly at the Short - to - Medium End and Slightly Widened at the Long End - In 2025, the yields of credit bonds generally rose, especially at the medium - to - long end. The credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, narrowing significantly at the short - to - medium end and slightly widening at the long end. Non - financial bonds performed better than financial bonds [83].