2025年12月PMI数据点评：PMI逆季节性回升，预期改善

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In December 2025, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first time it entered the expansion zone since April 2025[8] - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported an increase in PMI compared to November, driven by improved trade conditions and proactive inventory preparations ahead of the Spring Festival[8] - The production index and new orders index contributed 0.43 and 0.48 percentage points to the PMI, respectively, indicating a positive shift in manufacturing activity[10] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The new orders index reached 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from November, marking its return to the expansion zone for the first time since the second half of the year[14] - The production index also increased to 51.7%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point rise, driven by stronger demand and improved business sentiment[14] - The raw material purchase price index decreased to 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, alleviating cost pressures for downstream manufacturing[17] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index slightly increased to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from November, with significant variation across industries[20] - The construction sector saw a notable rise, with the business activity index reaching 52.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, attributed to favorable weather and upcoming holidays[23] Policy Outlook and Risks - Macro policies are expected to be more proactive in 2026, with early issuance of local government debt limits and investment plans totaling approximately 295 billion yuan[27] - A risk remains in the real estate sector, where demand still needs to be stimulated to support broader economic recovery[28]