East Money Securities·2025-12-31 13:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, specifically focusing on the Mini LED segment [2]. Core Insights - The Mini LED technology is positioned as a core driver of transformation in the black electrical appliance sector, with significant advancements in display technology and market penetration expected [16][17]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards larger screen sizes and superior picture quality, which Mini LED technology addresses effectively [21][34]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic brands leveraging cost advantages and government subsidies to enhance market share both locally and internationally [6][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Mini LED as the Core Driver of Black Electrical Transformation - Mini LED technology represents the third generation of display technology, competing with OLED and other emerging technologies [18]. - The performance of Mini LED displays, particularly in brightness and longevity, positions it favorably against OLED, which excels in flexibility and contrast [21][22]. - The global sales of Mini LED TVs are projected to surpass those of OLED TVs for the first time in 2024, with a significant increase in market penetration expected [22][24]. 2. Building High Barriers in the Mini LED Supply Chain - The report discusses the optimization of the Mini LED backlight industry and the advantages of high-generation panel layouts, which strengthen the competitive position of domestic manufacturers [2.1][2.2]. - The cost of 65-inch Mini LED backlight modules is expected to decrease significantly from $150 in 2023 to a range of $80-100 by 2025, enhancing profitability for domestic suppliers [2.3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the supply chain's evolution, with key players like 聚飞光电 and 京东方 showing strong revenue growth and margin improvements [2.4][54]. 3. Domestic Brands Expanding Internationally with Mini LED - Chinese brands are strategically entering high-value markets in the U.S. and Europe, capitalizing on the mismatch in supply and demand for high-end televisions [3.1][3.2]. - The report notes that the average size of televisions in China is expected to exceed the global average by 11.3 inches by 2025, indicating a strong trend towards larger displays [5]. - The competitive dynamics are shifting, with Chinese brands like TCL and Hisense aggressively expanding their presence in emerging markets while traditional Korean brands adopt a more conservative approach [5][6]. 4. Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - The report identifies a significant shift in consumer purchasing criteria, with an increasing focus on picture quality and size rather than just price [41]. - The penetration of Mini LED technology is driven by a cycle of price reduction and increased demand, which is expected to continue as production costs decrease [46][49]. - The sales data from 京东 indicates a substantial increase in the market share of Mini LED TVs, reflecting the successful implementation of competitive pricing strategies by brands like 小米 [46][49].