全球策略月报：海外定价重构，国内三条主线-20251231

International Market - Economic data from the US in December was significantly affected by the government shutdown, making it less reliable for analysis. The labor market showed weakness with November non-farm payrolls at 64,000, above the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.5% [5][8] - Inflation data also lacked reliability due to the government shutdown, with November CPI at 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, and core CPI at 2.6%, also below expectations. The data collection issues have raised concerns about the comparability of these figures [8][10] - The December FOMC meeting revealed significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with Powell's speech leaning dovish, indicating that "preemptive rate cuts" may be nearing an end. The median forecast for 2026 remains at 3.25%-3.5%, suggesting one more rate cut [10][12] - The US is strengthening its space strategy in response to China's advancements in commercial space, which may lead to a revaluation of related sectors. The Trump administration's recent executive order emphasizes the need for increased R&D and private sector investment in space [15] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, but the market reaction was muted, indicating that expectations had already been priced in [15][17] - Geopolitically, the US continues to exert pressure on Venezuela, which may affect oil prices and inflation expectations. The overall market saw low volatility in US Treasury yields and a mixed performance in the stock market, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs [19][21] Domestic Market - In November, China's exports turned positive with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, while domestic demand remains weak, with retail sales growth at 1.3%, down from 2.9% in the previous month. Fixed asset investment also declined by 2.6% year-on-year [29][31] - The December Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand, with "domestic demand as the main driver" being the top priority among eight tasks. The meeting highlighted the need for flexible monetary policy to support economic stability [31][32] - The commercial space sector in China is experiencing significant advancements, driven by both policy support and industry developments. Recent launches of reusable rockets indicate progress in this area, which is expected to become a sustainable growth sector following AI [32][34] - The market in December showed overall upward movement, with the ChiNext Index performing the best. Sectors such as defense, communications, and non-ferrous metals saw significant gains, while real estate and food and beverage sectors lagged [34][37] Outlook for January 2026 - The report suggests focusing on three key areas: 1) Opportunities in the aerospace sector and AI industry, which may resonate with movements in the US market; 2) High-growth advanced manufacturing sectors, supported by high investment growth; 3) Resource sectors benefiting from rising non-ferrous commodity prices, which still show upward trends [38]