Donghai Securities·2025-12-31 14:01Investment Strategy and Key Stock Portfolio - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing macro governance effectiveness and maintaining a positive policy tone, with a combination of more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy expected to continue [4][9] - The focus is on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing investment, with recent policy adjustments such as the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Beijing and a reduction in the value-added tax rate for second-hand home sales [4][9] - The report highlights the potential for a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of the coming year, as recent U.S. GDP data exceeded expectations, driven by a rebound in personal consumption [10] Key Stock Recommendations - Jinfa Technology (金发科技, 600143.SH): Positioned to transition from a comprehensive plastic leader to a high-end chemical materials platform, benefiting from strong demand in emerging industries [11][14] - Hengli Petrochemical (恒力石化, 600346.SH): As a leading private refining enterprise, it is expected to benefit from a new cycle of refining prosperity due to its extensive production capacity and diversified product offerings [11][14] - Satellite Chemical (卫星化学, 002648.SZ): Anticipated to enter a new growth phase with improved profitability in aromatics and polyester chains, supported by its cost control and market position [11][14] - Huidi Technology (汇得科技, 603192.SH): Expected to maintain high-quality growth due to strong demand for polyurethane materials and a favorable cost environment [11][14] - Aikodi (爱柯迪, 600933.SH): Positioned to benefit from the recovery of its robotics segment and potential contracts with Tesla, enhancing its growth prospects [11][14] - TeBao Bio (特宝生物, 688278.SH): Anticipated to see significant growth driven by its core product and expanding R&D pipeline [11][14] - New Dairy (新乳业, 002946.SZ): Expected to improve profitability through product innovation and a focus on low-temperature products [11][14] - Zhongke Lanyun (中科蓝讯, 688332.SH): Positioned to benefit from AI-driven growth in the electronics sector, with a comprehensive product line [11][14] - Hengxuan Technology (恒玄科技, 688608.SH): Focused on high-end SOC chips and AIOT applications, with strong competitive positioning [11][14] - Jereh Group (杰瑞股份, 002353.SZ): Expected to see robust growth supported by its diversified business and significant orders in the natural gas sector [11][14] ETF Recommendations - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (南方中证 1000ETF, 512100.OF): Notable growth of 29.27% year-to-date, tracking the CSI 1000 Index [15] - E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme ETF (易方达中证人工智能主题, 159819.OF): Strong performance with a 70.29% increase year-to-date [15] - Chemical ETF (化工 ETF, 159870.OF): Gained 43.01% year-to-date, reflecting the performance of the chemical industry [15] - Huatai-PB CSI Major Consumption ETF (汇添富中证主要消费 ETF, 159928.OF): Slight decline of 2.40% year-to-date [15] - Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF (南方中证申万有色金属 ETF, 512400.OF): Significant growth of 98.26% year-to-date [15]