光储行业2026年投资策略:储能发展渐入佳境,光伏反内卷纵深推进
GF SECURITIES·2025-12-31 14:04

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the energy storage sector, driven by the implementation of capacity pricing mechanisms in China and increasing demand for energy storage solutions globally, particularly in the context of AI advancements [7][14][27] - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is expected to see a reversal in profitability due to ongoing technological innovations and regulatory measures aimed at curbing excessive competition [7][14][27] Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage in China is transitioning towards market-driven models, with the introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms expected to enhance the economic viability of storage projects. The expected installed capacity for energy storage in China is projected to reach 154 GWh in 2025, 254 GWh in 2026, and 337 GWh in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 40.2%, 65.2%, and 32.5% respectively [7][14][27] - The report highlights that the U.S. is experiencing rapid growth in energy storage demand, particularly driven by data center construction, with an anticipated addition of 13 GW of data centers leading to a storage demand of 10.7 to 25 GWh [7][14][27] - In Europe, the demand for flexible resources is increasing, and the development of large-scale storage is accelerating due to improved business models and subsidies. The report forecasts that global energy storage installations will reach approximately 279 GWh in 2025, 423 GWh in 2026, and 563 GWh in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 52%, and 33% respectively [7][14][27] Photovoltaic Industry - The report notes that the PV industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with regulatory bodies emphasizing the need to address price violations and excessive competition within the sector. This is expected to lead to improved profitability in the downstream component segment of the PV industry by 2026 [7][14][27] - Global PV installations are projected to reach nearly 580 GW in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6%, driven by reasonable capacity limits in various regions [7][14][27] - Technological innovations aimed at reducing costs and increasing efficiency are expected to facilitate a reversal in profitability for the PV sector, with advancements in battery technology playing a crucial role [7][14][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the PV sector that are driving N-type technology innovations, such as JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, and JA Solar. It also suggests focusing on companies benefiting from new technological iterations in auxiliary materials [7][14][27] - In the energy storage sector, it highlights companies with technological leadership and competitive advantages, such as Sungrow Power Supply, Hubei Huadian, Canadian Solar, and Shenghong Technology, while also suggesting attention to firms like Shuneng Electric and Kehua Data [7][14][27]