Tebon Securities·2025-12-31 14:16Market Overview - The A-share market performed excellently in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 18.4% for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 29.9% and the ChiNext Index surged nearly 50% [5][6] - The trading volume remained robust, with daily transactions consistently above 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong market liquidity [5][6] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector led the market, with significant gains in stocks such as Aerospace Chuangxin and Beidou Xintong, driven by successful satellite launches [6] - The non-ferrous metals sector also showed strength, with Zijin Mining forecasting a net profit of 51-52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59%-62% [6][7] Bond Market Analysis - The bond futures market experienced a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract dropping 5.62% for the year [9] - The central bank's liquidity measures, including a net injection of 502.8 billion yuan, indicate a stable monetary policy environment [9] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market showed mixed results, with basic metals performing well while precious metals experienced increased volatility [9][10] - Nickel prices rose by 2.44% on December 31, 2025, influenced by Indonesia's plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production [10] Investment Themes - Key investment themes include commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence applications, and the resurgence of consumer spending driven by the appreciation of the yuan [11][13] - The report suggests a continued focus on sectors with strong growth potential, such as technology and resource cycles, as the market trends towards a slow bull phase [13]