2026年宏观和大类资产配置展望：行稳致远

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a projected interest rate cut of 50-75 basis points (bp) by the Federal Reserve due to weakening economic conditions and increased pressure on the Fed's independence from the Trump administration[1] - Major economies are entering a "big fiscal era," with significant fiscal expansions breaking previous fiscal discipline to address geopolitical conflicts and supply chain security, leading to increased demand for physical assets[1] China Economic Insights - China's GDP growth is projected to be around 5% in 2026, supported by moderately loose monetary policy and more proactive fiscal policy, with a fiscal deficit rate maintained at approximately 4%[2] - The consumer growth momentum remains weak, with nominal GDP growth dropping to 3.7% in Q3 2025, leading to a disparity between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment[2] - The PPI is expected to face challenges in turning positive in 2026, with inflation anticipated to recover slowly due to structural factors and weak financial cycles[2] Currency and Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar is expected to enter a long-term downtrend, influenced by its overvaluation relative to purchasing power parity and the US government's intention to promote a weaker dollar to reduce trade deficits[3] - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate gradually, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, as well as China's significant trade surplus with regions like the EU and ASEAN[3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The stock market is favored over bonds, with a slow bull market anticipated in China driven by factors such as improved global liquidity from a weak dollar and strategic government support for capital markets[4] - Commodity prices are expected to enter a long-term upward cycle, driven by the weak dollar, supply chain restructuring, and increased demand for physical assets due to expansive fiscal policies[4]