2026年1月固定收益投资策略：转债市场研判及“十强转债”组合

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry's investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bullish on the equity market during the "Spring Rally". With the expected strengthening of underlying stocks and seasonal effects, there is a slight room for convertible bond valuations to increase. When selecting bonds, focus on the performance elasticity of the underlying stocks. For near - maturity convertible bonds, consider participating in the underlying stocks [27]. - In the stock market, in December 2025, the risk appetite was high. Looking ahead, the RMB appreciation expectation is strengthening, and with the end of the year - end ranking assessment of financial institutions, the "Spring Rally" is expected to gradually kick off. In January, if the market adjusts during the intensive performance forecast period, investors can buy on dips and focus on resources, AI computing power, batteries, polyester industry chain, AI edge devices, and securities [27]. - In the convertible bond market, in December 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index reached a new high since July 2015. Although the share of convertible bond ETFs continued to decline, the market premium rate increased. In the future, due to seasonal effects, some institutional investors may gradually increase their positions in January, and convertible bond valuations have a slight room for improvement [27]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 2025 December Convertible Bond Market Review - Stock and Bond Market Review: In December, the equity market fluctuated upwards, and the bond market generally fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose for nearly 10 consecutive trading days in the middle and late - December, closing at 3963.68 on December 26, with a monthly increase of 1.27%. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.838% on December 26, up 0.10bp from the beginning of the month, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.223%, up 3.32bp from the beginning of the month [4][8]. - Convertible Bond Market Review: The convertible bond market generally rose following the equity market. The premium rates of convertible bonds in all parity ranges increased, but convertible bond ETFs continued to face outflow pressure. Five convertible bonds announced downward revisions, one more than the previous month, and 10 convertible bonds announced forced redemptions, two less than the previous month. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 493.2 on December 26, up 2.31% [5][8]. - Industry Performance: In the Shenwan industry classification, sectors such as national defense and military industry (+12.25%), communication (+10.55%), and non - bank finance (+8.27%) performed well, while sectors such as media (-4.77%), banks (-3.68%), and coal (-3.62%) declined [8]. 3.2 2026 January Convertible Bond Allocation Strategy - Stock Market Outlook: The RMB appreciation expectation is strengthening, and the "Spring Rally" is expected to start. In January, if the market adjusts during the performance forecast period, investors can buy on dips. Focus on resources, AI computing power, batteries, polyester industry chain, AI edge devices, and securities [27]. - Convertible Bond Outlook: Due to seasonal effects, some institutions may increase their positions in January. Convertible bond valuations have a slight room for improvement. When selecting bonds, relative - return funds should focus on high - probability sectors with a high - beta underlying stocks, and absolute - return funds should focus on high - odds sectors [27][28]. - Bond Selection Suggestions: For relative - return funds, focus on sectors such as lithium - battery materials, semiconductor equipment and materials, power semiconductors, high - quality auto parts, anti - involution industries, and securities. For absolute - return funds, focus on industry leaders with low valuations, sectors such as pig farming, power, and water supply, and convertible bond debt - to - equity conversion [28]. 3.3 2026 January "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" Portfolio | Convertible Bond Code | Convertible Bond Name | Underlying Stock Name | Industry | Balance (Billion Yuan) | Convertible Bond Price (Yuan) | Convertible Bond Parity (Yuan) | Conversion Premium Rate (%) | Rating | Recommendation Reason | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 113043.SH | Caitong Convertible Bond | Caitong Securities | Securities II | 37.99 | 133.52 | 109.71 | 21.70 | AAA | The securities sector will see a double - hit of valuation and profit in a bull market [30]. | | 123254.SZ | EVE Convertible Bond | EVE Energy | Battery | 49.98 | 167.64 | 134.65 | 24.51 | AA+ | The demand for energy storage is strong, and the shipment volume in the third quarter increased significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [30]. | | 113695.SH | Huachen Convertible Bond | Jiangsu Huachen | Power Grid Equipment | 4.60 | 160.16 | 122.10 | 31.17 | A+ | The company's new production capacity is put into operation just as the demand for energy storage is growing rapidly [30]. | | 113634.SH | Proya Convertible Bond | Proya | Cosmetics | 7.51 | 125.13 | 70.36 | 77.83 | AA | As a domestic beauty leader, its brand and product strength are outstanding, and its valuation at a historical low is expected to be restored [30]. | | 113616.SH | Will Semiconductor Convertible Bond | Will Semiconductor | Semiconductor | 24.32 | 124.07 | 78.35 | 58.36 | AA+ | The company is accelerating its introduction into intelligent driving and emerging markets and has launched new mobile phone products with strong competitiveness [30]. | | 118040.SH | Hongwei Convertible Bond | Hongwei Technology | Semiconductor | 4.30 | 149.72 | 116.17 | 28.88 | A | Power semiconductors benefit from the growth of power supply and energy storage demand [30]. | | 113674.SH | Huashe Convertible Bond | Huashe Group | Engineering Consulting Service II | 4.00 | 129.29 | 89.47 | 44.51 | AA | As a leader in infrastructure design, its main business is stabilizing, and intelligent design and low - altitude economy provide growth points [30]. | | 123222.SZ | Bojun Convertible Bond | Bojun Technology | Auto Parts | 2.44 | 224.63 | 194.72 | 15.36 | A+ | The growth of customer sales and the increase in ASP per vehicle drive up revenue and profit [30]. | | 113666.SH | Aima Convertible Bond | Aima Technology | Motorcycle and Others | 19.99 | 125.11 | 79.63 | 57.12 | AA | The new national standard may promote the market share of the two - wheeled vehicle leader [30]. | | 123247.SZ | Wankai Convertible Bond | Wankai New Materials | Plastics | 19.64 | 172.30 | 150.18 | 14.73 | AA | Under the "anti - involution" of bottle chips, the processing fee is expected to stabilize, and the company is entering the rPET blue - ocean market [30]. |