EBSCN·2025-12-31 15:38Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 510-520 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 59%-62% [1] - The company anticipates significant growth in mineral production for 2025, with gold production expected to increase by 23% and copper production by 2% [2] - The report highlights a favorable outlook for gold and copper prices due to a weakening US dollar and supply-demand dynamics, supporting the company's profitability [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of approximately 475-485 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses for 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of about 50%-53% [1] - For Q4 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is around 136 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 77% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.4% [1] Production Outlook - The company projects mineral production for 2026 to grow by 17% for gold, 10% for copper, 19% for silver, and 380% for lithium carbonate [2] - The planned production for 2026 includes 105 tons of gold, 1.2 million tons of copper, 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 520 tons of silver [2] Price Trends - The average spot price of gold in London from October 1, 2025, to December 29, 2025, is expected to be 4,164 USD/ounce, a 56% increase from Q4 2024 and a 19% increase from Q3 2025 [2] - The average price of copper on the LME is projected to be 11,048 USD/ton, marking a 19% increase from Q4 2024 and a 12% increase from Q3 2025 [2] Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's profit forecast based on rising gold and copper prices, estimating net profits of 515.1 billion yuan, 755.0 billion yuan, and 815.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 61%, 47%, and 8% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17, 12, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]