山金期货黑色板块日报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season. With steel mill profits dropping and the consumption peak passing, steel mill output is expected to decline slowly. The recent sharp rebound in coking coal prices has increased cost support for the futures market. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. Technically, the 05 contract of the rebar and hot - rolled coil has not broken out of the recent trading range [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the Ministry of Finance's statement has boosted market confidence. However, the overall output and apparent demand of the five major steel products have continued to decline week - on - week. As the off - season approaches, pig iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories are putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, the 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Supply - Demand Situation - Last week, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while the total output of the five major varieties decreased week - on - week. The overall inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coil increased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. Price and Spread Data - Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes. For example, the rebar steel main contract price increased slightly, while the hot - rolled coil main contract price decreased slightly. The basis and spread of futures contracts also changed, such as the rebar steel main basis decreased, while the hot - rolled coil main basis increased [2]. Production and Inventory Data - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly. The proportion of profitable steel mills increased. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties decreased, except for the rebar steel mill inventory which increased slightly. The steel billet inventory in the Tangshan area increased [2]. Apparent Demand and Transaction Data - The apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased slightly. The national construction steel trading volume and the wire and screw terminal procurement volume decreased [2]. Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2]. Iron Ore Market Environment - The Ministry of Finance's statement has boosted market confidence. However, the demand side is weakening as the off - season approaches, and the supply side has high global shipments and rising port inventories [4]. Price and Spread Data - Iron ore spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price decreased slightly, while the Platts 62% index increased slightly. The basis and spread of futures contracts also changed [5]. Supply - Related Data - The overseas iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore arrival volume at northern six ports increased, and the daily average port clearance volume increased slightly. The port inventory, port trade ore inventory, and the sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills all increased [5]. Production Data - The iron concentrate powder output of 186 national sample mines decreased [5]. Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [4]. Industry News - India has imposed a three - year import tariff on some steel products, with rates between 11% and 12%, aiming to prevent the influx of low - cost Chinese steel [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China increased by 246.21 tons compared to last Monday. The port inventory continued to accumulate [7]. - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 122.5 tons, reaching the lowest level in the fourth quarter of this year [7]. - According to the CISA, the floating value of the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage in December 2025 decreased by 55 yuan/ton compared to November 2025, a decline of 3.6% [8]. - There are 36 coal mines in Anshun City, with a total designed production capacity of 1488 tons/year. The production status of these mines varies [8].