黄金中流砥柱，白银乘风而起：2026年金银展望

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the gold and silver markets are expected to maintain a strong trend driven by the transformation of the macro - financial order and the tight micro - supply - demand structure, but their logical paths will significantly diverge [1][2][3]. - Gold's core narrative revolves around the deepening of "de - dollarization" and the revaluation of credit assets. It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce [2]. - Silver will enter an independent bull market dominated by "rigid industrial demand" and "supply bottlenecks". It is expected to challenge the $75 - $100 per ounce range in 2026 [3]. - For trading strategies, gold should be allocated as a "ballast stone" in the portfolio on dips; silver can be considered for trend - following long positions driven by industrial demand, but strict stop - losses are required. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage window brought by the mean - reversion of the gold - silver ratio [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025: Gold and Silver Continued to Shine 1.1 K - shaped Differentiation in the Performance of Major Asset Classes in 2025 - Equity and fixed - income assets: Chinese stocks rose 17.60% in 2025, and global stocks rose 17.63%. In the bond market, domestic bonds' returns dropped to 0.64%, while global bonds were relatively stable at 3.02% [9]. - Precious metals: Gold's return reached 53.91% in 2025, and silver's return was as high as 132.11%, becoming the best - performing asset class of the year [10]. - Energy and commodities: Crude oil had a return of - 10.82% in 2025, falling for two consecutive years. Industrial products and agricultural products also showed negative growth [11]. - Other assets: Real estate continued to slump, while foreign exchange and cash had stable and moderate positive returns [13][14]. 1.2 Liquidity Release and Demand Imagination Space Boosted the Surge of Gold and Silver - Gold showed strong anti - decline ability, with positive returns in 9 out of 12 observed years. In 2025, its increase was as high as 53.91% [15]. - Silver had higher volatility and elasticity. In 2025, it soared by 132.11%, driven by strong industrial demand and financial speculation funds [15]. 1.3 Multiple Narratives Drove the Soaring of Gold and Silver in 2025 - Gold market: It had two clear bull markets in 2025. The first wave was triggered by Trump's radical policies, and the second wave was due to the Fed's dovish turn and the revaluation of the US dollar's credit. At the end of the year, the price fluctuated at a high level [17][18]. - Silver market: It lagged behind in the first half of the year and then led the rise. In December, a "short - squeeze" market pushed the silver price to a new high [21]. 2. Multiple Factors May Push the Gold Price Higher 2.1 Global Monetary System Reconstruction: Gold Value Revaluation under the De - dollarization Wave - Dollar's decline in global reserves: The dollar's share in global official reserves dropped to 56.3% in Q2 2025, and it is expected to continue to decline. Gold's share in global official reserves has increased, and it is expected to reach the historical median level of 34% in 2026 [25][32]. - Emerging market central banks' gold purchases: Since 2022, emerging market central banks have been accelerating their gold purchases to hedge against the dollar risk. In 2022 - 2024, the average annual gold demand of central banks was 1072.3 tons, more than double the previous level [33]. 2.2 Monetary Policy Easing of Countries Led by the Fed - Global monetary policy has shifted from tightening to easing since 2025. The Fed's interest - rate cuts will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is beneficial to the gold price [41][43]. 2.3 Long - term Benefits of Expansionary Fiscal Policy and Global Debt Levels to the Gold Price - The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits and government debts in major economies, especially the US, has weakened the credibility of sovereign - credit currencies. Gold, as a hard asset, has become the preferred choice to hedge against such risks [45]. 2.4 Re - evaluation of Inflation Expectations and Gold's Safe - haven Attribute - In 2026, global inflation shows significant differentiation. Whether inflation is high or there is a deflation risk, the value of gold as an ultimate safe - haven asset will be reflected [51][55]. 2.5 Market Investment Demand: Resonance of Institutional Allocation and ETF Fund Inflows - Global gold ETFs: In 2025, the inflow of funds into global gold ETFs reached a new high since 2020. In 2026, the return of ETF investors and the continuous buying of central banks will jointly push up the gold price [56][58]. - Institutional investors' re - balance of gold asset allocation: In 2026, adding gold to the investment portfolio can reduce volatility and improve risk - adjusted returns. The proportion of gold assets held by institutional investors has increased from 1.5% to 2.8% [60]. 2.6 Geopolitical Risks: Ultimate Safe - haven Asset in an Uncertain Environment - Geopolitical conflicts: In 2025, geopolitical tensions provided support for the gold price. In 2026, although the risk may be reduced, it cannot be completely eliminated, and gold's strategic value will continue to exist [62][63]. - Global elections: The elections in major economies in 2025 - 2026 will bring policy uncertainties, which will strengthen the allocation value of gold as a tool to hedge against policy risks [66]. 2.7 Gold Supply Side: Fundamental Constraint of Scarcity - Gold supply is limited. The annual growth rate of new gold mining is slow, and the production cost has increased significantly. The cost - support effect on the gold price will be reflected in the pricing [69][72][73]. 2.8 Gold Demand Side: Strong and Diverse - Global gold demand has been increasing in the past three years. The consumption structure is changing from jewelry - dominated to investment and official - reserve - driven. Central bank gold purchases and gold ETF investments have become the key driving forces [77][79][80]. 3. The Global Silver Supply - Demand Gap is an Important Driver of Capital Inflows 3.1 Silver Supply Status and Capacity Bottlenecks - Silver supply has been in a state of tightness. The annual compound growth rate of global silver mine production has been negative since 2019. More than 70% of silver comes from associated mines, which restricts supply growth. It is expected that the supply growth will remain slow in the future [81][83]. 3.2 Photovoltaic Industry: Core Growth Engine of Silver Demand - The photovoltaic industry is the core driver of silver demand growth. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic field accounts for 17% of the total silver demand in 2024. The replacement of P - type batteries by N - type batteries will increase the demand for silver [88][89]. 3.3 Silver Demand Potential in the New - Energy Vehicle Field - New - energy vehicles have become an important growth engine for silver demand. The silver consumption of pure electric vehicles is 1.7 times that of fuel - powered vehicles. It is predicted that the annual growth rate of silver consumption in the automotive industry will be 4.5% - 12.5% from 2025 - 2027 [94][96]. 3.4 Silver Demand Potential in the Fields of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, and the Internet of Things - These emerging fields provide new application spaces for silver. The silver demand in these fields is expected to increase significantly in the future, and they will jointly form the "four pillars" of silver industrial demand [97][98]. 3.5 Support of Continuous Inventory Depletion to the Silver Price - As of December 2025, global silver inventories are at a low level. The low - inventory problem is caused by the long - term contradiction between the explosion of photovoltaic demand and the rigidity of mineral supply, which will support the silver price in the future [100][103][104]. 4. Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 4.1 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by This Report - Gold: It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce. The price may fluctuate around $4,700 in the first half of the year, break through $5,000 in the middle of the year, and may be adjusted in the second half of the year, but the decline will be limited [105][106]. - Silver: It will enter an independent bull market driven by "structural shortages" in 2026, with the price range between $75 - $100 per ounce. The price is more determined by inventory and delivery risks [108][109]. 4.2 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by Other Institutions - Gold: Most international investment banks are optimistic about the gold price in 2026, with target prices concentrated in the $4,500 - $5,055 range [111][112]. - Silver: The current price has exceeded most institutions' forecasts. Some institutions expect the silver price to reach $100 per ounce [113][114]. 5. Gold and Silver Trading Strategies in 2026 5.1 Unilateral Strategies for Gold and Silver in 2026 - Gold: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and use it as a core allocation in the investment portfolio. Buy in batches when the price corrects by 5% - 10% [117]. - Silver: Closely monitor the development of key industries such as photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles. Adopt an active long - position strategy when the industrial demand is strong, and set strict stop - losses [118]. - Hedging strategy: Adding precious metals to the investment portfolio can reduce the overall asset volatility and effectively disperse risks [119]. 5.2 Arbitrage Trading Based on the Mean - Reversion of the Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio has a characteristic of mean - reversion. When the ratio is at an extreme level, buy the undervalued one and sell the overvalued one. In 2026, pay attention to the extreme changes in the gold - silver ratio for arbitrage opportunities [122][123].