LPG：1月CP高位出台，夜盘补涨，丙烯：现货供需收紧，存止跌反弹预期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-31 01:54

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG: The January CP was set at a high level, leading to a night - session price increase. - Propylene: Spot supply - demand has tightened, with an expected rebound from the price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices and Changes: - For LPG futures, PG2601 closed at 4,195 yesterday with a 0.84% daily increase and 4,208 at night with a 0.31% increase; PG2602 closed at 4,097 yesterday with a 1.26% daily increase and 4,181 at night with a 2.05% increase. - For propylene futures, PL2601 closed at 6,010 yesterday with a 2.16% daily increase and 5,940 at night with a - 1.16% decrease [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: - PG2601 had a trading volume of 1,634 yesterday, an increase of 709 from the previous day, and an open interest of 1,432, a decrease of 862 from the previous day. - PL2602 had a trading volume of 12,936 yesterday, an increase of 3635 from the previous day, and an open interest of 5,369, a decrease of 556 from the previous day [1]. - Price Spreads: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG01 contract was 355 yesterday, down from 390 the previous day. - The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 285 yesterday, down from - 158 the previous day [1]. - Key Industrial Chain Data: - The PDH operating rate this week was 76.4%, up from 75.0% last week. - The MTBE operating rate was 68.0%, down from 68.9%. - The alkylation operating rate was 38.1%, up from 36.8% [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market News - Saudi Aramco set the January 2026 CP. Propane was set at 525 dollars/ton, a 30 - dollar/ton increase from the previous month; butane was set at 520 dollars/ton, a 35 - dollar/ton increase from the previous month. The estimated landed cost in RMB is about 4721 yuan/ton for propane and 4682 yuan/ton for butane [6]. - There are domestic PDH device maintenance plans and domestic LPG plant device maintenance plans, including details such as enterprise names, device capacities, maintenance start and end times [6][7].