2026沪铜年报：铜牛狂奔——全球资源博弈和价格新纪元

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, as the beginning of China's 15th Five - Year Plan, with the global monetary easing expectation, the new Fed chairman taking office, and Trump's mid - term election approaching, the macro - environment is generally positive. The shortage of copper concentrates at the mine end, the anti - involution of the smelting industry, and the continuous siphoning of global copper inventories by the US at the spot end provide strong support for copper prices. The competition in the fourth industrial revolution between China and the US has brought a huge power gap, and the demand for green copper in photovoltaic and new energy vehicles is on the rise, leading to an expanding global refined copper supply - demand gap. The strategic value and price center of copper are steadily rising. It is recommended to hold copper long positions, use trailing stop - loss protection, be cautious about chasing high prices, and mainly try to go long on dips. Be vigilant against the risk of a high - level correction due to insufficient demand after the fading of macro - sentiment [2]. - In mid - 2026, when Powell steps down, the short - term macro - positive factors will be realized and the traditional off - season will begin, so copper may face high - level adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Industrial customers should flexibly adjust the hedging ratio, lock in reasonable profits, strictly manage positions, and control risks. In the medium - to - long - term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, considering the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the copper market rebounded from the bottom at the beginning of the year due to Trump's weaker - than - expected tariff policy, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the pre - heating of the Two Sessions in China. In February, the lower - than - expected inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the increasing overseas mine disturbances pushed copper prices up. In March, Trump's escalating threat of imposing import tariffs on copper, the widening price difference between COMEX and LME, and the rumor of domestic smelter production cuts led to a sharp rise in copper prices, with hot money pouring into the market [5]. - In April, after the implementation of the copper tariff exemption, there was a rush to exit among long - position holders, and copper prices plunged. Subsequently, as Sino - US relations eased and the global economic recession concern weakened, copper prices oscillated and recovered. In June, due to the resurgence of the war in the Middle East and the continuous decline of LME copper inventories, copper prices rose against the seasonal trend [6]. - In July, Trump's new tariff threat caused copper prices to oscillate and fall back. In August, after the exemption of refined copper from the 50% tariff, COMEX copper prices plummeted, and the price difference between COMEX and LME narrowed sharply. In September, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut led to a rise in copper prices, but then they pulled back. In late September, the mine accident in Indonesia's Grasberg and the increasing expectation of a shortage of copper concentrates, along with other macro and micro factors, drove copper prices to a high after the National Day. From November to December, the overall macro - sentiment was positive, and copper prices continued to rise, reaching new highs at the end of the year [7][8]. Chapter 2: Macro Analysis 2.1 Global Economic Moderate Recovery and Asia - Pacific Geopolitical Conflict Risks - From 2025 to 2026, the global economy shows a trend of "overall slowdown in growth, differentiation among major economies, and moderate recovery in trade". The global economic growth rate is expected to slow slightly from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026. Major economies such as the US, China, the Eurozone, and India have different economic growth trends and inflation situations. Central banks around the world have shifted their monetary policies from tightening to easing [11][12]. - The global situation is turbulent, and geopolitical risks are increasing. The military use of copper may increase due to the global arms race. In 2025, the geopolitical risk in the Asia - Pacific region has increased significantly. If the Taiwan Strait risk breaks out in 2026, copper prices may rise further due to supply security concerns and the explosion of military copper demand [13][14][18]. 2.2 Trump's Copper Tariff TACO Review: Will Copper Tariffs Make a Comeback in 2026? - In 2025, Trump listed copper as a "national security vital resource" and proposed a series of copper tariff policies, which had a significant impact on the global copper market. The implementation or non - implementation of these policies led to large fluctuations in copper prices and the price difference between COMEX and LME. Trump's tariff policies have reshaped the global copper trade flow, accelerated the regionalization of the copper supply chain, and increased the uncertainty of the market. In 2026 - 2027, the US may impose selective tariffs on refined copper imports from some countries [19][20][30]. 2.3 AI Bubble Concerns and the "Iron Chain of Ships" of US Tech Giants - In 2025, the growth of US copper consumption is mainly driven by grid transformation, the explosion of data centers, and the return of manufacturing industries. Data centers have become an important and rapidly growing area for copper consumption. However, there are concerns about the AI bubble, and the investment in AI in the US may face challenges such as unclear commercialization and over - dependence on a single company. In 2026, China is expected to start the era of AI application, which will strengthen the long - term demand for copper [32][34][38]. 2.3 The Fed's Powell's Final Act: Weaker Dollar, Stronger Copper Prices - In December 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and launched a short - term Treasury purchase plan. The decision - making process showed internal differences, and the future policy path will depend on economic data. Powell's term will end in May 2026, and the possible candidates for the new Fed chairman have different stances on inflation, interest rates, and independence. The US economy shows signs of a slowdown in employment and a decline in inflation, and the dollar index is in a downward trend. There is a negative correlation between the dollar and copper prices, but attention should be paid to the risk of a high - level adjustment of copper prices in mid - 2026 [39][40][45]. 2.4 Global Macroeconomic Cycles and the 15th Five - Year Plan - Currently, the global economy is at the end of the sixth Kondratieff cycle and the fifth Juglar cycle since China's reform and opening - up. The theme of this Juglar cycle is the Sino - US chip war. The importance of copper as a key raw material in the fields of green energy transformation and AI competition is increasing. The start of the restocking cycle in China and the US will support the demand for copper. The 15th Five - Year Plan will promote China's economic transformation and upgrading, and copper's strategic value will continue to rise [50][51][53]. Chapter 3: Supply Analysis 3.1 Intensified Global Competition for Copper Mine Resources and Chinese Copper Enterprises' Overseas Expansion - Due to geopolitical risks, resource protectionism, and other factors, the long - term capital expenditure in the global copper mining industry is insufficient, and the new supply is limited. Global copper mine reserves are mainly concentrated in countries such as Chile, Australia, and Peru. China's domestic copper reserves are relatively small, but Chinese enterprises have actively expanded overseas. In 2025, many global copper mines were affected by accidents, strikes, and other factors, resulting in a downward revision of production forecasts. In 2026, the global mainstream copper mine supply is expected to increase theoretically, but the overall supply situation remains tight [54][58][60]. 3.2 Deeply Inverted Smelter Processing Fees and the Industry's Call for Anti - Involution - In 2025, the global copper smelting capacity utilization rate remained high, but the copper concentrate processing fees continued to decline, reaching a new low. The smelting industry is facing "involution - style" competition. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association has called for measures to control capacity and resist unfair pricing. The CSPT group has reached a consensus on reducing production capacity, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing malicious competition [64][65][66]. 3.3 Smelters to Cut Capacity in 2026, Slowing the Growth of Refined Copper Supply - In 2025, the global refined copper production reached a record high. It is expected that there will be a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in the global refined copper market in 2026. In November 2025, China's copper smelting operation rate increased, and the refined copper production increased month - on - month. However, the import of refined copper decreased, and the export increased significantly. Affected by the reduction of smelter capacity and the decline in imports, the growth rate of refined copper supply in 2026 will slow down [70][71][75]. 3.4 High Global Visible Inventory, Tight Non - US Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the global copper visible inventory was at a historically high level, but the inventory in non - US regions was relatively tight. The US is expected to continue to siphon global copper inventories, and there are concerns that the US copper tariff may return. The non - US copper market may face a squeeze - out risk [76]. Chapter 4: Demand Analysis 4.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Triggers a Surge in Power Demand, and Green Copper Demand Shines - The fourth industrial revolution, including AI and the development of the power industry, has led to a sharp increase in power demand, which in turn drives the demand for copper. The power industry is the most important area for copper consumption, accounting for about 45% of the total. China's new infrastructure construction and the development of renewable energy will greatly boost copper demand. It is expected that the copper consumption in the domestic power industry will increase by 6.78% year - on - year to 7.88 million tons in 2026, accounting for 47% of the total copper consumption [81][84][88]. 4.2 The Real Estate Market is at the Bottom, Urgently Needing to Stabilize - The real estate market is currently in a downturn, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and completion area. The real estate stimulus policies have had limited effects, and the industry has dragged down the overall demand for copper. It is predicted that the copper consumption in the construction industry will decline by 11.59% year - on - year to 2.9 million tons in 2026, accounting for 17% of the total copper consumption [95][96]. 4.3 Stimulating Consumption and the Recovery of Exports: Household Appliance Consumption Maintains Resilience - The government has introduced policies to support the replacement of household appliances. The copper consumption in the household appliance industry is expected to maintain a certain growth rate, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 5.1% from 2021 to 2025. It is expected that the copper consumption in the household appliance industry will reach 2.32 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 6.42%, accounting for 14% of the total copper consumption [98][100]. 4.4 The New Energy Vehicle Industry is Booming, and Green Copper Demand is on the Rise - New energy vehicles have a much higher copper consumption per vehicle than traditional fuel vehicles. In 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in China continued to grow, and the penetration rate increased. In 2026, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be reformed, and the industry is expected to maintain high - speed development. It is estimated that the copper consumption in the transportation industry will reach 2.3 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 4.07%, accounting for 14% of the total copper consumption [101][102]. 4.5 The Industrial Machinery and Electronics Sectors Show Considerable Growth, and the Robot Industry Shines - The robot industry has developed rapidly in 2025, and copper is an essential key material for robots. Although the current copper consumption in the robot industry is relatively small, it has great growth potential. It is expected that the copper consumption in the machinery and electronics industry will reach 1.4 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, accounting for 8% of the total copper consumption [105][106][107]. 4.6 The Return of Speculative Forces: The Bull Market of Copper is Irresistible - With the overseas copper supply disturbances and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the speculative enthusiasm in the copper market has rebounded. As of December 12, 2025, the net long positions of speculative funds in LME copper decreased slightly, while those in COMEX copper increased significantly. As of December 26, the trading volume and price of Shanghai copper both increased [108]. 4.6 Forecast of the 2026 Refined Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It is predicted that the global copper concentrate production in 2026 will be 23.38 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.65%. The global refined copper production will be 28.75 million tons, with the growth rate slowing down to 0.88%. The global refined copper demand will be 29.25 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 2.09%. The global refined copper supply - demand gap will expand to 500,000 tons. The domestic refined copper supply will be 16.55 million tons, and the demand will be 16.8 million tons, with the domestic supply - demand gap expanding to 250,000 tons [115]. Chapter 5: 2026 Annual Outlook - In 2026, the copper price operation logic has changed from "China - demand - led" to a ternary structure of "capital pricing + resource politics + supply chain control". The global copper concentrate supply will remain tight, and the smelting industry will continue to resist involution, with an expected 10% capacity reduction. The US will continue to siphon global copper inventories, and the green copper demand will support the demand side [117][118]. - Although the long - term trend of copper is upward, the short - term volatility may increase. It is recommended to use trailing stop - loss for long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices. In mid - 2026, copper may face high - level adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Industrial customers should adjust their hedging strategies according to market conditions. The recommended price range for Shanghai copper in 2026 is 85,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 10,000 - 13,000 US dollars/ton [118][120].