铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global metal prices have returned to an upward trend, and the consumer subsidy policy will be optimized in 2026. The Fed's dovish stance and market liquidity management will impact metal prices [2]. - The price of precious metals fluctuates sharply, and it is necessary to strictly control risks. The long - term logic of precious metals has not reversed, but short - term volatility is expected [4][5]. - The copper price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term due to factors such as Fed policy, global electrification transformation, and inventory changes [6][7]. - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to unclear market guidance and weak downstream demand [8][9]. - The alumina price is under pressure and is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - The casting aluminum price is expected to remain range - bound due to the weak supply - demand situation [11]. - The zinc price will follow the fluctuations of the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term with limited fundamental contradictions [12]. - The lead price is expected to oscillate narrowly due to factors such as market sentiment repair, low inventory, and import pressure [13][14]. - The tin price is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [15]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of market sentiment and changes in supply and demand [16][17]. - The steel price is expected to oscillate due to the continuation of the trade - in policy, real - estate benefits, and the weak supply - demand situation [18][19]. - The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate due to strong supply and weak demand [20]. - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate at a low level due to loose supply - demand conditions [21]. - The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as weather, export sales, and inventory [22][23]. - The palm oil price is expected to oscillate within a range due to factors such as Fed policy, inventory changes, and pre - holiday short - covering [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed is dovish, with most officials believing that further interest rate cuts are appropriate if inflation falls as expected. The market for metals has shown differentiation, with silver strongly rebounding and gold rising and then falling. Base metals have strengthened across the board [2]. - Domestic: The "Two - New" national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, with adjustments to the subsidy structure and a reduction in standards. The A - share market has ended a nine - day rally, and the trading volume has remained at 2.16 trillion yuan, with more than 3400 stocks falling [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - During the day on Tuesday, gold and silver futures prices rebounded slightly, while platinum and palladium futures prices continued to fall and hit the daily limit. At night, COMEX gold futures once rose 1.60% and then gave back most of the gains, and COMEX silver futures rebounded strongly with a gain of more than 6% at the close. Platinum and palladium futures also had a technical rebound. The Fed's policy uncertainty has strengthened the market's logic of using gold as a "policy hedging tool" [4]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated higher, and LME copper rebounded sharply after adjustment. The domestic near - month C structure expanded, and the spot market trading was light. The LME inventory decreased to 149,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory continued to rise to 488,000 tons. The Fed's policy and the industry's subsidy policy will affect the copper price, and it is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,565 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The LME closed at 2,986.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.22%. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased. The Fed's policy is divided, and the market guidance is unclear. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate within a range [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,751 yuan/ton, down 1.33%. The spot price was flat, and the theoretical import window was open. There was news of roasting furnace maintenance in southern alumina plants, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of casting aluminum alloy futures closed at 21,475 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The spot price rose. The aluminum price was adjusted at a high level, and the supply - demand situation was weak. It is expected to remain range - bound [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated stronger during the day and moved horizontally at night, and LME zinc oscillated stronger. The spot market trading was light. The Fed's policy was in line with expectations, and the market reaction was flat. The zinc price will follow the fluctuations of the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead first rose and then fell during the day and oscillated narrowly at night, and LME lead oscillated narrowly. The spot market trading was light. The lead price rebounded due to market sentiment repair and low inventory, but it is expected to oscillate narrowly before the holiday [13][14]. 3.9 Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin stabilized and repaired during the day and oscillated horizontally at night, and LME tin rose slightly. The market sentiment repaired, and the tin price stabilized and oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [15]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The spot price was basically flat, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply decreased marginally, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. 3.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The 2026 national subsidy policy was released, and the real - estate policy was favorable. The overall supply - demand situation was weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate [18][19]. 3.12 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures slightly回调. The port inventory increased, and the supply was strong while the demand was weak. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [20]. 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and adjusted. The price of coking coal decreased, and the fourth - round price cut of coke was launched. The supply - demand situation was loose, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [21]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.36%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.21%. Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to decrease, and the weather in the soybean - producing areas needs to be continuously monitored. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate in the short term [22][23]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 1.22%. The Fed's policy and inventory changes will affect the palm oil price. Pre - holiday short - covering led to a rise in the price, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [24].