国新国证期货早报-20251231

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 30, 2025 - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index almost closed flat with a "ten - day consecutive gain", closing at 3965.12 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49% to 13604.07 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% to 3242.90 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: It fluctuated and consolidated on December 30, closing at 4651.28, a环比 increase of 11.91 [2]. - Coke and Coking Coal Futures: The coke weighted index had a narrow - range shock, with a closing price of 1710.2, a环比 increase of 9.7; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1113.9 yuan, a环比 increase of 14.2 [2][3]. 2. Commodity Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Port coke spot market prices declined. Some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Tangshan, and Shijiazhuang regions initiated the fourth round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on January 1, 2026. Coke production was relatively stable, and steel mills still purchased on - demand [4]. - Coking Coal: The price of main coking raw coal in Linfen, Shanxi increased by 25 yuan to 610 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 15 yuan to 955 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian 3 clean coal increased by 5 yuan to 1050 yuan/ton. Some coal mines began to control production near the year - end, and the market was in a weak and volatile state [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar had a narrow - range shock and a small gain on Monday. Affected by the holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar futures had an oscillatory trend and a small increase on Tuesday. The 2026 January domestic sugar sales quota in India decreased by 500,000 tons compared to 2025, and Indonesia planned to import about 3.1 million tons of sugar in 2026 [4]. Rubber - Affected by the holiday effect, Shanghai rubber futures had an oscillatory trend and a small decline on Tuesday, and a narrow - range shock and a small decline at night [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures slightly declined on December 30. Brazil's good rainfall was conducive to soybean growth, and multiple institutions raised or maintained their production forecasts. Domestically, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2778 yuan/ton on December 30, with a 0.14% increase. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the inventory increased by 7.72% week - on - week [5]. Live Pigs - The main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11790 yuan/ton on December 30, with a 0.64% increase. In the short term, the supply pressure was weakened, and the demand was strong, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure was still not fundamentally alleviated [5]. Palm Oil - On December 30, palm oil rebounded in the range. The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures prices rose, and the market sentiment was boosted by the strong performance of Chicago Board of Trade soybean oil and the increasing demand [5]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper (main contract 2602) had a high - level correction, with a 2.36% decline in price. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The inventory increased, and the decline was mainly due to profit - taking and cautious downstream purchases [5]. Cotton - The main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14570 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday. Cotton - spinning enterprises purchased on - demand, and the inventory increased by 127 lots [5]. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 778, with a closing price of 776 and an increase of 21 lots in open interest. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship was relatively stable [6]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and declined on December 30, with a 0.44% decline. The global iron ore shipment increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron ore price was in an oscillatory state in the short term [6]. Asphalt - The main asphalt contract 2602 oscillated and rose on December 30, with a 1.47% increase. The capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory accumulated, the shipment volume increased, and the price oscillated in the short term [6]. Steel - On December 30, rb2605 was reported at 3134 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3282 yuan/ton. The macro - policy was expected to be "double - loose", which boosted the market sentiment. However, the steel market supply - demand was in a weak balance, and the price might oscillate in a narrow range in the short term [6]. Alumina - On December 30, ao2605 was reported at 2751 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina ore supply was stable, the import supply was expected to increase, the demand was limited, and the market was in a surplus state [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 30, al2602 was reported at 22565 yuan/ton. The macro - sentiment release ended, and the aluminum market declined. The supply was normal, the social inventory accumulated, and the demand pressure increased [6].