新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-31）-20251231

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, soda ash, 2-year treasury bonds, 5-year treasury bonds, log, pulp, double offset paper, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean two, rubber: Oscillation [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500, CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 10-year treasury bonds: Consolidation [3] - Gold, silver: Correction [5] - Live pigs: Relatively strong [7] - PX, PTA: Wide-range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low-level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report - The high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, but short-term bullish sentiment has emerged due to policy changes and the expectation of pre-holiday restocking by steel mills. Long-term shorting opportunities should be considered after restocking is realized [2] - The fourth round of price cuts for coke is expected to be proposed at the end of the month and implemented in early January. Coal coke still has support due to capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - The implementation of the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply-side policy benefits to demand-side negatives, which will have a direct impact on steel exports and raw material prices [2] - The price of glass is expected to experience a process of first verifying supply reduction and then verifying demand sustainability. The overall demand is weak, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold repair situations [2] - The stock indexes of the previous trading day showed different trends. The government's advance allocation of 625 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade-in programs is expected to drive consumption [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Short-term corrections are possible, but there is solid medium- to long-term support [5] - The supply of logs is expected to stabilize, but demand is relatively weak. Prices are expected to oscillate [5] - The supply of pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - The supply of double offset paper is stable, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [5] - The supply of edible oils is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - The global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] - The demand for live pigs is expected to increase during the New Year's Day holiday, which will support price increases [7] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors and inventory accumulation [9] - The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - The supply of MEG has long-term accumulation pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [9] - The polyester bottle chip market may consolidate within a range due to the high price of raw materials and a wait-and-see attitude in the industry [9] - The short fiber market is expected to be in a wait-and-see state in the short term [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short-term bullish sentiment due to policy and restocking expectations. Long-term shorting after restocking [2] - Coal Coke: Fourth round of price cuts expected. Support from capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - Rolled Steel: Impacted by export license management. Policy changes bring short-term bullish sentiment, but prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2] - Glass: Cold repair expected at the end of the year. Market to verify supply reduction and demand sustainability. Overall demand is weak [2] - Soda Ash: Inventory accumulation, high midstream inventory, and weak demand. Attention to macro and production line cold repair [2] Financial - Stock Index Futures/Options: Different trends in previous trading day's stock indexes. Advance allocation of special treasury bonds to support consumption [3] - Treasury Bonds: Interest rates are in a state of consolidation, and the market shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - Gold: Pricing mechanism shift. Short-term corrections possible, but solid medium- to long-term support [5] - Silver: Similar to gold, short-term corrections and medium- to long-term support [5] Light Industry - Log: Supply expected to stabilize, demand weak. Prices to oscillate [5] - Pulp: Abundant supply, weak demand. Prices to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - Double Offset Paper: Stable supply, some demand support. Short-term stable oscillation [5] Oilseeds and Oils - Edible Oils: Abundant supply, uncertain demand. Short-term price oscillation [6] - Meal: Abundant global soybean inventory, sufficient soybean meal supply. Price oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: Increased demand during the New Year's Day holiday to support price increases [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply affected by weather, demand with some support. Inventory accumulation, price oscillation [9] Polyester - PX: High supply, demand supported by downstream polyester. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - PTA: Cost affected by oil prices, short-term supply-demand improvement. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - MEG: Long-term supply accumulation pressure, short-term low-level oscillation [9] - PR: High raw material prices, industry wait-and-see. Market range consolidation [9] - PF: Short-term market wait-and-see [9]