格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil market, due to factors such as potential biodiesel policy benefits, changes in production and export volumes, and inventory changes, the market is cautious around the New Year's Day holiday. It is advisable to take profits on previous long positions in vegetable oils and resume trading after the holiday [1][2]. - For the double - meal market, considering factors like global soybean trade re - evaluation, high domestic bean meal inventory, and limited terminal price acceptance, it is recommended to conduct intraday trading before the holiday and make long - term plans after the holiday [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oils Market Review - On December 30, driven by the strengthening of the Malaysian palm oil market, the Dalian palm oil market rose, leading to an increase in the overall vegetable oil prices. The main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all had price changes, with different trends in positions [1]. Important Information - The biodiesel policy may bring positive effects. The Trump administration may make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Starting from January 1, the tax credit for US biodiesel and renewable diesel producers will increase [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, with a decline in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield and oil extraction rate (OER). The export volume increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in November [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation increased by about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The B50 road test started in December, and the mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1]. - As of the end of the 52nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 36,700 tons week - on - week, a 1.60% decline [1]. Market Logic - Overseas, after Christmas, US soybean oil opened high and closed low but still had an upward trend. The Malaysian palm oil market was pressured by high - inventory expectations and technical resistance levels. Domestically, due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday, the market was cautious. For soybean oil, there were both long and short factors; for palm oil, it was mainly pressured; for rapeseed oil, the inventory continued to decline, and traders were reluctant to sell, with a positive sentiment [2]. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, take profits on previous long positions in vegetable oils and resume trading after the holiday. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There are no arbitrage strategies for now [2]. Double - Meals Market Review - On December 30, the double - meal market opened low and closed high, with rapeseed meal performing stronger than soybean meal. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different price and position changes [2]. Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting and increase soybean planting to 85 million acres [2]. - As of the week of December 25, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,199 tons, with 135,417 tons to the Chinese mainland [2]. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons [2]. - As of December 27, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 97.9%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1%. Argentina's soybean sowing is three - quarters complete, and the crop condition is generally good [3]. - Brazil's December soybean export volume is expected to be 3.57 million tons [3]. - S&P Global Research Report states that in 2026, the US soybean market may face a decline in both production and exports, while Brazil's soybean harvest may prompt China to seek more Brazilian supplies [3]. - As of the end of the 52nd week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 875,000 tons week - on - week, the domestic bean meal inventory increased by 84,000 tons week - on - week, and the contract volume decreased [3]. - On December 24, there were rumors that the customs inspection procedures would be tightened until the second quarter of next year [3]. Market Logic - Overseas, the market re - evaluated global soybean trade, and with the end of the year approaching, previous funds withdrew, causing US soybeans to close down. Domestically, the high bean meal inventory restricted terminal procurement. Although there was some support on the supply side, the terminal's acceptance of price increases was limited, and the market trading was light [3]. Trading Strategy - Conduct intraday trading in the double - meal market before the holiday and make long - term plans after the holiday. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There are no arbitrage strategies for now [3].