尿素周报：区间震荡有支撑-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline space of urea is limited, with support at the price of 1600. The reasons include: recent inspections of domestic gas - based plants leading to a decline in daily production, but high production and operation rates year - on - year; demand in the off - season with mainly reserve inventory, and an increase in demand for industrial compound fertilizers; a slight increase in cost support around 1500 - 1550; the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas with an expected quantity of about 600,000 tons. Overall, the downward drive of urea slows down under the adjustment of off - season storage and exports, and it should be treated as a range - bound situation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - Cost - end logic: Coal prices have declined recently, while urea ex - factory prices have slightly increased. Coal - based urea profits are still low, close to the production cost of anthracite - based urea. The natural gas price in the southwest region remains stable, and gas - based urea profits are also low [8]. - Supply - end logic: Domestic gas - based plants are gradually under inspection, resulting in a decline in domestic production on a month - on - month basis, but the absolute quantity remains high, and the supply side is generally loose [8]. - Demand - end logic: In the agricultural sector, demand is in the traditional off - season with weak support, mainly for reserve replenishment. In the industrial sector, the compound fertilizer industry has a high operating rate, and other industrial demands maintain rigid procurement. After the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas, speculative demand has weakened. Overall, domestic urea supply remains high with difficult - to - relieve pressure. Although agricultural demand is in the off - season, off - season storage is in an orderly manner, and the compound fertilizer industry maintains a high operating rate. Overall demand has slightly increased. With mid - stream reserve replenishment and exports, urea enterprise inventories have continuously decreased, and the fundamentals support a short - term bottom - rebound of spot prices [8]. 3.2 Price, Spread, and Profit - Urea price changes: This week, the urea spot market price has slightly increased, with mainstream regional prices rising by about 10 - 30 yuan/ton on a month - on - month basis. Local environmental warnings have affected the compound fertilizer industry and urea production, and market speculation about exports has stimulated downstream purchasing. Urea factory inventories have decreased, and orders have increased, with a firm price - quoting intention [27]. - Regional spreads: This week, regional spreads are within the normal range, which can be used to judge whether the regional logistics window is open [39][40]. - Urea profits: Coal - based urea profits remain low, close to the break - even point of anthracite - based production. Gas - based urea profits also remain low. The current ratio of urea to ammonium chloride is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, while the ratios to phosphate fertilizers and potash fertilizers are at low levels in previous years [63][66]. - Overseas prices and spreads: India has issued a new urea import tender, which has led to a rebound in the international urea market. Different regions have different price trends. The 5 - 9 spread of urea has strengthened by 15 yuan/ton this week, and the basis has weakened, for example, the 05 - contract basis in Henan has weakened by 18 yuan/ton compared to last week [78][89]. 3.3 Supply - Production and Operation - Output and operation rate (Longzhong data): Urea daily production and operation rates are presented in the data, showing the operation of domestic urea plants [94]. - Output and operation rate (Baichuan data): This cycle, domestic urea production is 1.3334 million tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons from last week. The operation rate is 78.77%, a decrease of 1.92%. Among them, coal - based urea is 87.06%, and gas - based urea is 50.37% [96]. - Capacity investment and maintenance: In 2025, the domestic urea capacity is 79.8 million tons, and it is planned to put into production 5.95 million tons in 2026, with an expected capacity growth rate of about 7.45%. By the end of 2026, the urea capacity is expected to reach 95.75 million tons. This week, the domestic urea plant maintenance loss is 301,700 tons, an increase of 11,800 tons from last week [102][113]. 3.4 Demand - Agricultural fertilization: Currently, agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, mainly for reserve replenishment [8]. - Compound fertilizers: This cycle, the compound fertilizer market has partially increased, with an operation rate of 37.75%, a decrease of 1.62% from last week. Inventories have increased by 6,600 tons to 702,000 tons [129]. - Melamine: This week, melamine production is 30,200 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from last week. The operation rate is 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48%. The domestic melamine market has shown a narrow - range downward trend, with some fluctuations in production capacity utilization and market sentiment [143]. 3.5 Inventory - Longzhong data: This week, urea enterprise inventories are 1.0689 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons from last week. Port inventories are 177,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from last week [144]. - Baichuan data: This week, enterprise inventories are 1.1128 million tons, a decrease of 94,400 tons from last week. Port inventories are 152,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week [150].