宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-31-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of 'oscillation', a medium - term view of 'oscillation', and an intraday view of 'bullish'. The overall reference view is 'bullish operation' [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate within a week [1] - Medium - term: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate from two weeks to one month [1] - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be bullish [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - Overseas supply disruption: As the main import source, most of the methanol plants in Iran (8 out of 11) are shut down, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the expected import volume in January and providing strong upward momentum for the futures market [5] - Inventory improvement: The inventory of methanol at domestic ports has decreased, and the basis has been repaired [5] - Cost support: The cost side provides a bottom - up support [5]