化工板块年度策略：总体配置思路

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The general allocation idea for the chemical sector is to seek hedging allocation for related varieties and focus on timing opportunities for independent varieties [4]. - For the aromatic hydrocarbon strategy (PX - BZ), it is recommended to be long on PX and short on BZ in 2026 due to the expected improvement in the PX - TA production capacity pattern and the continued production expansion of BZ [4][8]. - For the olefin strategy (PVC - PP), it is recommended to be long on PVC and short on PP in 2026 because PVC is entering the production capacity clearance stage with limited new capacity, while PP is in the capacity expansion period [5][67]. - For the timing strategy, it is recommended to time - long BR in the first half of 2026, supported by the favorable supply pattern of its raw material, butadiene [6][110]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aromatic Hydrocarbon Strategy: PX - BZ - PX Situation: - In 2025, there was no new PX production capacity, and in 2026, the main domestic production was only one 2 - million - ton device from Huajin Petrochemical, planned to be put into operation after Q3 [12]. - In 2025, four PTA devices were put into operation with a total new capacity of 1.15 billion tons, and in 2026, there was no new PTA device planned, and some old devices stopped production, resulting in a short - term improvement in PTA production capacity [13]. - In 2025, the new polyester production capacity was about 4.5 million tons with a growth rate of about 5.3%, and in 2026, the planned new production capacity was about 4 million tons with an estimated growth rate of about 4%, mainly including filament, staple fiber, and bottle chips [18]. - From the perspective of the supply - demand balance sheet, if polyester maintains stable growth in 2026, both PX and PTA need to increase their annual average loads on the basis of high - load operation this year to balance the industrial chain, and PX is likely to be the most in - short - supply link [25]. - Currently, PXN is around 300 US dollars per ton, and it is expected to continue to strengthen in 2026. The annual average processing fee of PTA is expected to recover to over 200 yuan per ton, but it is difficult to have a large rebound [28]. - BZ Situation: - In 2026, BZ production is relatively evenly distributed throughout the year, with an annual production capacity growth rate of about 6%. From a static perspective, the upstream - downstream relationship is relatively balanced, but the production delay of adipic acid devices in 2025 is expected to continue in 2026 [37]. - The domestic supply of BZ is expected to remain at a high level. In the first 11 months of 2025, the domestic output of petroleum benzene was 20.45 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 7%. It is expected that there will be few BZ overhauls in Q1 2026, and the overhaul volume in Q2 will be moderate [41]. - The import of BZ is difficult to reduce. North American disproportionation devices restarted in Q4 2024, and the US BZ overhauls decreased year - on - year. South Korean BZ is still highly dependent on the Chinese market, and the import volume is difficult to reduce before H1 2026 [46]. - The downstream demand for BZ is suppressed by low profits, and the terminal consumer demand is under pressure. In December 2025, the total production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 14.1% year - on - year [57][59]. - Strategy Recommendation: Long on PX and short on BZ [4][8] Olefin Strategy: V - PP - PVC Situation: - In 2026, the new PVC production capacity is limited, with a growth rate of only 0.27%, and the number of long - stopped devices is increasing. There is no definite planned production in 2026, only the 300,000 - ton device of Jiahua in 2025, and a total of 220,000 tons of planned exit capacity [71]. - The expectation of using caustic soda to subsidize PVC production is weakening, especially in the second half of the year. The downstream alumina production is mainly concentrated in the first quarter, so the caustic soda price may be more supported in Q1. After Q2, the supply - demand gap pressure of new production capacity will gradually emerge, and the supply of caustic soda will be in surplus [79]. - The export demand for PVC is expected to continue to be good. In 2026, China's PVC exports to India may reach about 1.6426 million tons, and the total exports to non - Indian countries are expected to be 2.5016 million tons. However, the domestic real - estate demand is weak, which will have a long - term negative impact on PVC demand [88][92][94]. - PP Situation: - In 2025, the total new PP production capacity was 4.555 million tons, with a growth rate of 10.21%, and the total production capacity exceeded 49 million tons. In 2026, it is estimated that the new production capacity will exceed 4 million tons, with a growth rate of about 9%, and the total production capacity is expected to exceed 53 million tons [99]. - In 2026, PP demand lacks obvious highlights. The growth rate of terminal plastic product demand is difficult to keep up with the expansion of polyolefin production capacity, and the downstream profit pattern is poor, providing limited support for PP [107]. - Strategy Recommendation: Long on PVC and short on PP [5][67] Timing Strategy: Long on BR - Driving Factor: The long - BR strategy is mainly driven by the raw material, butadiene. There is no new domestic production plan for butadiene in the first half of 2026, and due to the elimination of ethylene production capacity in South Korea and other countries in 2026, the overseas import supply is expected to shrink, which is expected to support the strengthening of BR [6][110]. - Risk: The idle oxidative dehydrogenation capacity (with high production costs) may start production under certain conditions, which will significantly increase the supply pressure of butadiene [110]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the first half of 2026, refer to the low price of butadiene in early 2025 and the price at which oxidative dehydrogenation starts to make a profit as the upper and lower boundaries, and time to long the main BR contract [110]