棉花：维持震荡偏强走势20251231

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 14,560 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.87%, and 14,570 yuan/ton at night with a night - time increase of 0.07%. CY2603 closed at 20,605 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.56%, and 20,575 yuan/ton at night with a night - time decrease of 0.15%. ICE US Cotton 3 closed at 64.3 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.06%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 537,129 lots, a decrease of 127,069 lots from the previous day, and the position was 1,139,140 lots, a decrease of 10,656 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 10,923 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 20,870 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 5,212, an increase of 127 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 3,973, an increase of 211. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 19, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 2, an increase of 17 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,416 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.78%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.79%. The price in Shandong was 15,581 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.01%. The price in Hebei was 15,564 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.03%. The 3128B index was 15,543 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.01%. The International Cotton Index: M: CNCottonM was 72.75 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.07% [1] - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish. The basic price quotes were basically the same as the basis price quotes. The mainstream lower - selling basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF05 + 900 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North - South Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30 with impurity within 3 in Shandong and Henan warehouses was mostly in the range of CF05+1500 - 1600 for self - pick - up in the inland [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable overall, and the trading was average. Recently, the price of cotton yarn has risen slightly, but the weak downstream demand has blocked the price increase transmission, and the profit of yarn mills has been under continuous pressure. There is a game between the year - end pressure of selling goods for cash and the rising raw material cost. The sales of the cotton grey fabric market are still dull, and the grey fabric price is difficult to follow the increase. Currently, textile mills have insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered orders [2] - US Cotton: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures rose and then fell for the third consecutive day. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, the market is concerned about the US cotton export sales data to be released on Thursday [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3][4]