2025年12月PMI数据点评：PMI超预期回升对2026年市场的启示

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The significant rebound of PMI in December 2025 may be related to the policy intensification in October, and the policy has shown obvious effects [4][5]. - The replenishment of inventory may start, which is expected to drive economic recovery [6]. - The overall rhythm of the change in manufacturing PMI is similar to that in 2016 and 2019, indicating that the economic cycle may have started [7]. - The core of the policy is to disprove the view of "less - than - expected economic recovery", and after repeated disproving, the market will become optimistic [8]. - Regarding the bond market, the target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of about 2.5% [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Event Review - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1% (previous value: 49.2%), up 0.9 pct month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2% (49.5%), up 0.7 pct month - on - month; the composite PMI was 50.7% (49.7%), up 1.0 pct month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI rebounded significantly beyond seasonality and expectations, reaching a new high since April [4]. 3.2 Reasons for PMI Rebound - Policy Intensification: In October, the policy intensified with 50 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments and 50 billion yuan of local debt balance limits. After the policy efforts, the PMI improved slightly in November and significantly in December [5]. - Inventory Replenishment: After continuous destocking from October to November, the raw material inventory was at a historical low in December, and inventory replenishment started, which may drive economic recovery [6]. - Similar Historical Patterns: The sudden rebound of PMI above 50% in December 2025 is similar to the situations in 2016 and 2019, indicating that the economic cycle may have started [7]. 3.3 Policy Logic - The policy aims to disprove the view of "less - than - expected economic recovery". In history, there were periods of economic decline, but the economy recovered after policy support, and the view was disproved. After repeated disproving, the market will form optimistic expectations [8]. 3.4 Bond Market View - Fundamentals: The view of "less - than - expected economic recovery" is disproved, and the wide - credit and wide - fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026 may accelerate the economic cycle recovery [9]. - Monetary Policy: If there is a wide - monetary policy, it may be a reduction opportunity, similar to the situation in 2025 [9]. - Inflation: Pay attention to whether the month - on - month increase of PPI can remain positive [9]. - Funds Rate: If inflation rises month - on - month continuously, there is a possibility of tightening funds, and the yield of short - term bonds will rise [9]. - Real Estate: Real estate is not used as a means of stabilizing growth this time and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [9]. - Bonds: The target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of about 2.5% [9].