港股投资周报：年度收官，港股精选组合本年度上涨53.23%-20260103

• Model Name: Guosen Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from the analyst-recommended stock pool[17] - Model Construction Process: The model is constructed by first creating an analyst-recommended stock pool based on analyst earnings forecast upgrades, initial coverage by analysts, and unexpected events in analyst report titles. Then, stocks in the pool are selected based on both fundamental and technical dimensions. The backtest period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025. The annualized return of the portfolio is 19.11%, with an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[17] - Model Evaluation: The model effectively combines fundamental and technical analysis to select outperforming stocks[17] - Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance; Factor Construction Idea: The factor measures the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days[23] - Factor Construction Process: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price, and $ ts_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price is a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the fallback magnitude[23] - Factor Evaluation: The factor effectively captures the momentum effect in the Hong Kong stock market[21][23] Model Backtest Results - Guosen Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio, Annualized Return: 19.11%, Excess Return: 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[17] - Guosen Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio, 2025 Performance: Absolute Return: 53.23%, Excess Return: 25.46% relative to the Hang Seng Index[18] Factor Backtest Results - 250-Day New High Distance, Selected Stocks: Modern Dairy, etc., with the highest number of stocks in the cyclical sector[23][24]