固定收益专题报告：11月全社会债务数据综述：向择时和策略要收益

Overview - The report discusses the performance of the Chinese economy and financial markets, highlighting a stable liquidity environment and a potential slight improvement in profitability in early 2026 [2][5]. Group 1: Overall Debt Situation - As of November 2025, China's total social debt reached 502.7 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.6%, slightly down from 8.7% in the previous month [16][22]. - The debt growth rates for households and government sectors were lower than previous values, while non-financial enterprises saw an increase, with their debt balance growing by 9.3% [22][24]. Group 2: Financial Institutions' Assets and Liabilities - By the end of November 2025, the broad financial institution debt balance was 166.5 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, which is lower than the previous 6.5% [30]. - The banking sector's debt balance was 136.6 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, down from 7.7% [30]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - The report indicates that the domestic stock market is bullish while the bond market remains stable, with liquidity conditions exceeding previous expectations [2][5]. - In November 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of bank bond investments was recorded at 17.3%, slightly lower than the previous 17.5% [42]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that profitability may see a slight improvement in January 2026, with the debt side remaining stable and risk appetite at a high level [5][14]. - The expected fluctuation range for ten-year bond yields in 2026 is projected to be between 1.6% and 1.9% [5][6].