需求依旧偏弱,政策仍需加码
Xiangcai Securities·2026-01-03 12:04

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Insights - Demand remains weak, and policies need to be strengthened to stimulate the market [2] - In major cities, the resilience of second-hand housing transactions is observed, while new housing demand remains weak [5][6] - The central economic work conference emphasizes city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past twelve months, the relative performance of the real estate sector compared to the CSI 300 index has decreased by 16% [4] - Absolute returns for the sector are down by 4% over the past month and 9% over the past three months [4] Transaction Data - In Beijing, the average daily transaction of second-hand homes was 702 units (down 8% year-on-year), while new homes saw an average of 159 units (down 31% year-on-year) [5] - In Shanghai, second-hand homes averaged 808 units (down 13% year-on-year), and new homes averaged 340 units (down 31% year-on-year) [6] - In Shenzhen, second-hand homes averaged 154 units (down 21% year-on-year), and new homes averaged 58 units (down 73% year-on-year) [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and land reserves in core cities, such as Poly Developments [8] - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in leading intermediary firms benefiting from increased second-hand housing transactions, such as I Love My Home [8]

需求依旧偏弱,政策仍需加码 - Reportify