农林牧渔行业：牛肉进口实施配额制及配额外关税，看好肉牛价格周期上行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a quota system and additional tariffs on beef imports, which is expected to support the upward price cycle of beef cattle [6] - The total beef import quota for 2026 is set at 2.688 million tons, with specific allocations for Brazil (1.106 million tons), Argentina (0.511 million tons), Uruguay (0.324 million tons), and Australia (0.205 million tons) [6] - The report anticipates that domestic beef prices will continue to rise in 2026 due to reduced supply from previous losses in cattle farming, which enhances profit elasticity for livestock companies [6] - The report suggests investment opportunities in both beef and dairy cattle sectors, particularly focusing on companies like Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of the quota system on beef imports, which is expected to alleviate supply pressure on the domestic market [6] - In 2024, beef imports are projected to account for 27% of total supply, with a 5% year-on-year increase in import volume [6] Price Trends - The beef cattle price cycle is expected to rebound due to previous capacity reductions, with a projected increase in beef prices for 2026 [6] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the national cattle inventory was 99.32 million heads, showing a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 2.4% year-on-year decline [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the beef and dairy sectors, particularly highlighting the potential for profit growth in livestock companies due to the expected price increases [6] - Key companies to watch include Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the favorable market conditions [6]