定期报告：节后春季行情进行中聚焦成长

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year after the New Year's Day, the A - share spring market is underway and may be volatile and bullish, affected by factors such as policy implementation, liquidity, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [1][4][7]. - After the holiday, technology growth and some cyclical industries may be relatively dominant, with continuous upward industrial trends and policy support [1][26]. - After the holiday, it is recommended to continue to allocate industries such as technology, some cyclical and consumer sectors on dips [1][38][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Post - holiday Spring Market is Underway 3.1.1 Factors Affecting Post - holiday A - share Movement - Since 2010, in 11 out of 16 years, the Shanghai Composite Index showed the same upward or downward trend in the 10 trading days before and after the holiday. The post - holiday short - term market performance is affected by policies, external events, liquidity, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [1][4]. - Positive policies and external events may lead to a short - term rise in the post - holiday A - shares, while tight policies or negative external events may result in weak performance. Liquidity also plays a key role, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market during the holiday has a certain impact on the post - holiday A - shares [4]. 3.1.2 This Year's A - share Spring Market is Underway and May be Volatile and Bullish - Positive policies may continue to be implemented after the holiday, and external risks may be limited. The "two new" policies are accelerating implementation, local two - sessions may be held intensively, and consumption - stimulating policies may be introduced. Externally, the Fed may cut interest rates in January, Sino - US relations may remain stable, and geopolitical conflicts may ease [7][8]. - Post - holiday short - term liquidity may be further relaxed. Overseas, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the RMB exchange rate may be strong. Domestically, the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements. Also, stock market funds may accelerate inflow [9]. - The Hong Kong stock market performed strongly during the New Year's Day holiday, which may boost the post - holiday A - shares. The correlation coefficient between the Hong Kong stock market's rise and fall during the New Year's Day holiday and the Shanghai Composite Index's rise and fall in the 10 trading days after the holiday is about 0.5 [18][19]. - The post - holiday economy and corporate profits are still in weak recovery. The economy is in a weak recovery state, and corporate profits may continue to recover, although the industrial enterprise profits in November continued to decline [21]. 3.2 Industry Allocation: Focus on Growth after the Holiday 3.2.1 Technology Growth and Some Cyclical Industries May be Relatively Dominant after New Year's Day - Historically, policy and industrial trends drive pre - holiday strong industries to maintain their strength after the holiday. Pre - holiday leading industries may switch due to high sentiment or market adjustments. Industries with continuous strength around the New Year's Day usually have a relatively low historical quantile of trading volume [26]. - This year, the industrial trends of technology growth and some cyclical industries may continue to rise after the holiday. The pre - holiday leading cyclical industries have neutral - low sentiment, while the technology growth industries have high sentiment [26]. 3.2.2 Currently, the PEG of Electric Power, Media, and Automobile is Low - Among the primary growth industries, the predicted PEG of electric power equipment, media, and automobile is relatively low, at 0.64, 0.86, and 1.13 respectively. The historical quantiles of trading volume of medicine, computer, media, and automobile are low [40]. - Among the secondary growth industries, the sentiment of traditional Chinese medicine, biological products, automobile services, and chemical pharmaceuticals is low. The predicted PEG of nautical equipment, games, commercial vehicles, and wind power equipment is relatively low [44]. 3.2.3 After the Holiday, it is Recommended to Continue to Allocate Industries such as Technology, Some Cyclical and Consumer Sectors on Dips - It is recommended to allocate industries with upward policy and industrial trends, such as machinery (robotics), military (commercial aerospace), electric power (nuclear fusion, energy storage), media (AI applications, games), computer (AI applications, satellite Internet), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), communication (AI hardware), and medicine (innovative drugs) on dips [46]. - In the short term, it is recommended to allocate sectors that may make up for lost ground and have potentially improved fundamentals, such as securities and consumer sectors (food, retail, social services) on dips [56].