REIT策略周报:供需共振,REITs市场迈入新阶段-20260104
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-01-04 03:14

Core Insights - The REITs market is expected to enter a phase of "strong supply and demand," highlighting its medium to long-term investment value, focusing on quality operators to share in market growth [1][5]. Supply Side Summary - Continuous expansion efforts are underway, including broadening the range of original rights holders to include well-governed financial institutions with asset management experience [2][8]. - Encouragement for asset diversification is emphasized, promoting REITs to hold complementary or synergistic asset combinations and facilitating cross-sector asset integration [2][8]. - The establishment of more flexible yield requirements linked to risk-free rates is being researched, with guidelines suggesting that net cash flow distribution rates for real estate projects primarily relying on rental income should not be less than 150 basis points above the 10-year government bond yield [2][8]. Demand Side Summary - The investor structure is anticipated to diversify further, including REIT index funds, public funds, and REIT ETFs, with a push to attract long-term capital from insurance, social security, and pension funds [5][9]. - The market is expected to benefit from significant incremental capital, which may enhance market valuation and mitigate risks [5][10]. Market Performance Summary - The REITs index experienced a decline of 0.49% in the week ending December 31, 2025, with notable drops in consumer and municipal environmental REITs [7][14]. - Specific sector performance varied, with storage REITs declining by 0.07%, while municipal environmental REITs saw a drop of 1.40% [7][14].