Minsheng Securities·2026-01-04 05:15Core Insights - The motorcycle industry is expected to see strong growth in 2026, driven by high-end exports and robust domestic sales, with a focus on the mid-to-large displacement segment (over 250cc) [6][12] - Domestic sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles are projected to reach 47.7 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [12] - Export volumes for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles are anticipated to hit 71.8 million units in 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase of 33.0% [12] Industry Overview - The mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market has shown a consistent upward trend, with domestic sales reaching 37.4 million units in the first ten months of 2025, marking a 6.2% increase year-on-year [5][14] - The penetration rate of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles in the domestic market has reached a historical high of 11.1% in 2025, up by 2.1 percentage points from the previous year [5][23] - The export of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles has accelerated, with 44.9 million units exported in 2025, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 59.1% [5][55] Market Structure and Competition - The market structure is evolving, with the top three companies (Chunfeng Power, Qianjiang Motorcycle, and Longxin General) holding a combined market share of 53.6% in the domestic market as of 2025 [47][48] - Chunfeng Power has seen rapid market share growth, increasing its share to 23.6% in 2025, while Qianjiang Motorcycle and Longxin General have experienced declines [47][48] - The competitive landscape is becoming more diversified, with domestic companies enhancing their product offerings and brand strength, allowing them to capture a larger market share [6][9] Future Outlook - The domestic market is expected to see a continued shift towards higher displacement models, with the proportion of 500cc-800cc motorcycles projected to reach 25% of total sales by 2026 [12][9] - The overseas market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles is estimated to have a potential space of over 5 million units, with significant growth opportunities in Europe and Latin America [7][13] - The focus on high-end products and international expansion is anticipated to drive the growth of domestic motorcycle companies, positioning them for sustainable global competitiveness [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Chunfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, as these companies are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in both domestic and international markets [9][12]