12月PMI点评：淡季逆势回升，结构仍趋分化

Group 1: PMI Trends - December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November, indicating a return to expansion[8] - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 52.5%, a significant increase of 2.4 percentage points from November, marking a new high for 2025[8] - Construction PMI increased to 52.8% in December from 49.6% in November, driven by favorable weather and policy support[8] Group 2: Export Dynamics - New export orders PMI rose from 47.6% to 49% in December, suggesting potential recovery in export demand[8] - Optimistic scenario indicates a rebound in U.S. consumer goods import demand, supported by textile and electronic exports[8] - Pessimistic scenario highlights potential "export rush" due to Mexico's tariff adjustments and EU carbon tariffs, impacting specific sectors[4] Group 3: Structural Disparities - Large enterprises showed significant PMI recovery, while small enterprises experienced a decline, indicating a mismatch in export capabilities[4] - Supply chain congestion in consumer goods sectors, particularly textiles and electronics, reflects urgent production demands[4] - The disparity in PMI recovery across different enterprise sizes suggests varying capacities for "export rush" activities[4]