宏观周报：国内地产明确定调，地缘风险再度上行-20260104

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - During the New Year holiday, consumer demand for travel and cinema surged, with retail sales of passenger cars showing a narrowing year-on-year decline of 19.5%[1] - In December 2025, the external demand showed an increase in volume but a decrease in price, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) at 2315.2, reflecting a 5.1% increase[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The PMI and high-frequency data showed a divergence, with the PMI at 50.1% in December 2025, indicating no significant improvement in physical workload[1] - The production impact of the late Spring Festival in 2026 was minimal, with the production index showing a 3.42 percentage point increase compared to November 2025[1] Price Performance - CPI showed fluctuations in pork prices and a continuous rise in fruit prices, with a 0.43% increase noted[2] - PPI indicated a weakening in crude oil prices while non-ferrous metal prices showed volatility, with WTI at 1.77%[2] Fiscal Policy - In January 2026, local government bond issuance plans are set at 580 billion, reflecting a 104.4% increase compared to the previous year[2] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has shifted upward, with the SHIBOR 007 rate at 1.9560%, up by 51 basis points[2] Global Macro - Global financial market activity has cooled due to the New Year holiday, impacting trading volumes[2]