Orient Securities·2026-01-04 05:30Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market dynamics that promote capacity reduction, leading to a potential price turning point in Q2 2026, with long-term performance improvements anticipated for related stocks [3][43] - The structural growth trend in the post-cycle sector continues, with profits likely to gradually transmit downstream if the current round of pig capacity reduction proceeds smoothly, benefiting the animal health sector [3] - The planting chain shows a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, indicating favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth and price increase logic, with continuous recognition of domestic brands and sustained growth of leading companies [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs as of December 31 was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 10.38%, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 19.44 yuan/kg, up 2.21% week-on-week [12][51] - The supply side shows a widening price gap for fattened pigs, supporting price increases, while demand is boosted by consumption expectations during the New Year holiday [12][17] Poultry - The price of white feather broilers increased to 7.82 yuan/kg, up 6.39% week-on-week, and chick prices rose to 3.59 yuan/chick, up 1.7% week-on-week [17][51] - The supply of meat chickens has increased, leading to a more relaxed market supply, while demand has weakened due to some slaughterhouses reducing operations [17] Feed Sector - The prices of corn, wheat, and soybean meal have risen, with corn averaging 2351.57 yuan/ton, up 0.57% week-on-week, and soybean meal at 3172.29 yuan/ton, up 0.96% week-on-week [27][51] - Increased selling enthusiasm among farmers is noted, although the pace of supply remains slow [27] Major Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber futures price was 15605 yuan/ton as of December 31, down 0.29% week-on-week, with inventory levels increasing [38][51] - The current down cycle for sugar prices continues, with no significant recovery expected [39]