Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-04 06:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the recovery of core cities and the potential for value reassessment in shopping centers [2][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the real estate sector as a significant contributor to the national economy and household wealth, advocating for robust policy measures to stabilize market expectations [30]. - It identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable policies for "good housing" and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which could lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2][30]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 4.067 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.8% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, December transactions in these cities decreased by 26%, with first and second-tier cities down 25.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down 30.6% [2][6]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.1 million square meters, a decrease of 10.4% from the previous week [11]. - Cumulatively, December transactions were down 26.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in third and fourth-tier cities [11][7]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes a decrease in available housing inventory, with a total of 89.401 million square meters available in 15 cities, down 1.4% week-on-week [23]. - The average months of inventory turnover for the last three months is reported at 21.8 months, indicating a slight improvement in market absorption [23]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - Recent policy changes include a reduction in the value-added tax rate for personal housing sales, aimed at stimulating market activity [30][31]. - The report highlights the need for policies that align with market expectations to avoid creating a tug-of-war between market forces and regulatory measures [30]. Company Developments - Notable company activities include the establishment of a Pre-REITs fund by China Resources Land, aimed at investing in quality commercial real estate projects [36][38]. - CIFI Holdings has completed its debt restructuring, marking a significant milestone in its financial recovery efforts [36].