KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-01-04 06:14Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply-demand dynamics are driving the pig price upward, with the average price of live pigs in China at 12.78 CNY/kg as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.20 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 3.01 CNY/kg [3][12] - The implementation of country-specific quotas and additional tariffs on imported beef is expected to benefit domestic beef prices, with a total import quota of 268.8 million tons for 2026, a decrease of 6.34% compared to 2024 [4][21] - The pig farming sector is experiencing accelerated losses, while the pet food sector is seeing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [5][27] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is supported by both supply and demand factors, with a recovery in price margins observed [12] - The utilization rate of breeding facilities increased to 32%, up 2.0 percentage points week-on-week and 11.1 percentage points year-on-year [12] Weekly Market Performance - The agricultural index rose by 0.13%, in line with the overall market performance [29] - Key stocks such as Jingji Zhino (+19.00%), Muyuan Foods (+5.48%), and Shennong Group (+4.16%) led the gains [34] Price Tracking - As of January 2, 2026, the average price of live pigs was 12.76 CNY/kg, up 1.13 CNY/kg from the previous week [39] - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.82 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [43] - The average price of beef was 65.89 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.08% week-on-week [47] Key News - The Ministry of Commerce announced the implementation of country-specific quotas and additional tariffs on imported beef, effective from January 1, 2026, for a period of three years [35]