转债周策略20260104：如何跟踪转债相对股票的性价比

Group 1 - The report indicates that convertible bonds with a conversion value greater than or equal to 130 yuan exhibit a certain degree of "dulling" in their price movements relative to the underlying stocks, but their correlation with stock price movements is significantly higher than that of lower conversion value bonds [2][14] - The increase in convertible bond valuations has indeed impacted their cost-effectiveness compared to stocks, with the Q3 follow-up ratios for bonds in the 130 yuan and 130-100 yuan ranges being higher than those in Q4 [2][14] - The report highlights that from July to August, the monthly follow-up ratios for various conversion value ranges were above 1, indicating a high cost-effectiveness for convertible bonds; however, in September and October, some ranges showed a follow-up ratio below 1, suggesting weaker cost-effectiveness compared to stocks [2][14] Group 2 - The report suggests that the influx of new capital into the market will continue into 2026, with a high probability of a "spring excitement" market trend, particularly focusing on technology and high-end manufacturing investment opportunities [4][23] - It is noted that as institutional investors' share in the convertible bond market increases, the expectations for the stock market will increasingly influence convertible bond valuations, which are expected to remain stable in the short term [4][23] - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds in sectors such as AI-driven industrialization, semiconductor domestic substitution, and high-end manufacturing, with specific bonds like Ruike and Huanyu being highlighted for their growth potential [4][23]