A股策略周报：一年之计在于春-20260104

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to welcome a "spring opening red" due to the resonance of policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals, with a focus on technology, non-bank financials, and consumption [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points in 2025, with an annual increase of 18.41%, confirming the strategic judgment of Guotai Junan [8][4] - The market is anticipated to stabilize at important levels, driven by factors such as the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026, and increased liquidity from A500 ETF inflows [8][4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights a new trend of price signals indicating an economic upturn, with demand improving in sectors like chemicals and new energy, while supply is contracting [21][4] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from global chip technology breakthroughs and a continued trend of rising storage prices, with domestic computing infrastructure shortages likely accelerating localization [25][4] - Non-bank financials are projected to benefit from increased wealth management demand and capital market reforms, with recommendations for insurance and brokerage firms [41][4] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical stocks in the context of expanding domestic demand and stable real estate policies, recommending sectors such as tourism services and consumer goods [25][4] - The AI application sector is highlighted as a key growth area, with significant developments in robotics and commercial aerospace, indicating strong investment potential [25][4] - The report notes that the insurance sector is expected to see improved profitability due to increased equity allocations and favorable market conditions [41][4]