量化大势研判 202601：宜攻守兼备：成长+质量

• The report introduces a quantitative framework for market trend analysis, emphasizing the inherent attributes of assets and their lifecycle stages, categorized into five styles: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[6][7][10] - The framework prioritizes asset comparison using metrics such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (PB/SIZE), each tailored to specific lifecycle stages[7][10] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.45% since 2009, with notable positive excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017[17][20][18] - The report recommends three dominant styles for January 2026: expected growth, actual growth, and profitability, supported by metrics like Δgf, Δg, and ΔROE, all showing expansion trends[15][33][29] - Expected growth strategy selects industries with the highest analyst forecasted growth rates, achieving significant excess returns since 2019. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include automotive sales, home appliances, tungsten, emerging financial services, and lithium[37][39][36] - Actual growth strategy focuses on industries with the highest Δg and related factors (sue, sur, jor), showing strong long-term excess returns. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include photovoltaic equipment, electronic chemicals, lithium battery chemicals, aerospace military, and home appliances[39][40][36] - Profitability strategy targets industries with high ROE and low PB-ROE valuation residuals, with notable excess returns from 2016 to 2020. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include agriculture, liquor, power distribution equipment, non-dairy beverages, and network connection/tower setup[42][43][36] - Quality dividend strategy uses DP+ROE scoring to select industries, with significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include forestry/processing, boiler equipment, public transportation, fuel cells, and network connection/tower setup[45][46][36] - Value dividend strategy employs DP+BP scoring, achieving notable excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include security, daily chemicals, pet food, buses, and network connection/tower setup[48][50][36] - Bankruptcy value strategy selects industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores, showing strong excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include automotive sales, ceramics, cotton textiles, dyeing, and building decoration[52][53][36]