国泰君安期货能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20260104

Report Information - Report Name: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Contact Person: Zhao Shucen [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views LPG - Geopolitical factors disrupt costs, and attention is paid to the realization of downward drivers. The market is relatively stable during holidays, with the internal PG fluctuating and consolidating. After the holiday, the high opening of the January CP official price boosts market sentiment, but the coexistence of supply return and weakening chemical demand expectations remains, and the loose pattern remains unchanged. The market price rises and then falls. In the future, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the holiday is expected to disrupt the cost-side crude oil in the short term, and the increase in the January CP will support the propane trend. However, high prices suppress buying interest, the actual import cost support is limited, and the supply pressure remains. Meanwhile, the current chemical profit is at a low level, there are many PDH maintenance plans in the first quarter, the economic efficiency of cracking propane feedstock is insufficient, and the procurement increment is limited, so the downward driver is gradually emerging. [4][5] Propylene - There is limited upward and downward driving force, and the spot price trend stabilizes. Next week, there will be a mix of start-ups and shutdowns in terms of supply, and the demand side is expected to increase. Overall, propylene lacks obvious trend guidance and is expected to remain volatile and stable in the short term. However, the high opening of CP further compresses the profit of PDH devices, and attention should be paid to the realization of the expected increase in unexpectedly shut-down devices in the first quarter. [8] Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis show regional differentiation in civil use trends, and import costs are relatively firm. The prices of propane in the international market show a certain degree of fluctuation, and the spot premium has significantly declined. [11] - The domestic LPG market price shows a pattern of strong performance in South China and stable performance in East China and Shandong. [15] - The regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates show that the CP official price opens high, but the premium falls. [23] - The propane price has declined month-on-month. [32] Supply - The US LPG shipment volume to Asia has increased month-on-month, while the Canadian LPG shipment volume remains relatively stable. The Middle East LPG shipment volume is tight in the spot market, and the shipments are delayed. The total LPG commodity volume in China has increased slightly, and the propane commodity volume has decreased in terms of import arrivals. [42][48][49][64][76] Demand & Inventory - In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate has increased, while the MTBE operating rate has decreased. The domestic LPG refinery inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, with limited month-on-month changes. The civil LPG refinery inventory has changed little month-on-month. The LPG terminal import inventory has significantly decreased month-on-month due to lower-than-expected arrivals. [80][82][90][99] Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, the cost-side propane first declines and then rises, while the propylene price remains stable. The prices of some downstream products of propylene have improved, and the profit of powder materials has improved. The international/US dollar price of propylene remains flat month-on-month, and the domestic price trend remains stable. [111][113][115][123] Balance Sheet - In the propylene industry chain, the PDH operating rate has increased month-on-month; the powder material operating rate has further declined, while the butanol and octanol operating rates have significantly increased. The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions show certain changes, and the inventory has also changed accordingly. [135][138][144][150][155][157][162] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.0% (+0.9%). The refinery/main operating rate remains at 75%, and the local refinery operating rate is 56%. The ethylene cracking operating rate is 82.8% (-0.4%), and the cracking profit center has slightly improved month-on-month. The PDH capacity utilization rate is 76.4% (+1.4%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 87.8% (-1.7%). [167][169][179][184][189] Demand - The downstream PP capacity utilization rate is 76.9% (-2.5%), and the profit has stopped falling and slightly recovered month-on-month. The PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37.6% (+0.7%), and the spread between powder materials and propylene has continued to recover, with some devices returning. The PO capacity utilization rate is 74.1% (-2.0%), and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly further. The acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 80.3% (-0.3%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+0.4%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The n-butanol capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+2.1%), and the profit has increased significantly month-on-month. The octanol capacity utilization rate is 85.0% (+3.0%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The phenol-ketone capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+2.5%), and the profit has increased slightly month-on-month. The ECH capacity utilization rate is 50.82% (+2.39%), and the price and profit have both increased month-on-month. [203][208][221][230][235][243][251][254][264][266][273] Downstream Inventory - The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed slightly. The inventory of PP powder materials has also changed slightly. The inventory of acrylonitrile factories and ports remains stable, while the inventory of phenol and acetone in Jiangyin Port has decreased. [277][288][290]