国泰君安期货能源化工纸浆周度报告-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend in the short - term, with a weak balance formed by multi - and short - factors at the current position. It's recommended to pay attention to the update of foreign market quotes and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [96]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port reached 548,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous period, a 17.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a 1.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Gaolan Port was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease [5][6]. - In November 2025, the month - end inventory of European port pulp decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, with the total inventory dropping from 1.404 million tons at the end of October to 1.389 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 46 days (standard calculation method). The total shipment volume decreased by 6.9% year - on - year [7]. - In late December 2025, domestic white cardboard and food packaging paper industries started a price repair process. Leading paper enterprises such as Bohui and APP announced price increase plans, and Wuzhou Special Paper also followed suit [7]. 3.2 Market Data - As of December 31, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 68 yuan/ton, a 326.67% increase from the previous period; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 132 yuan/ton, a 42.61% increase from the previous period; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period [14]. - As of December 31, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a 25% decrease from the previous period; the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 5.88% increase from the previous period [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between needle and broadleaf pulp narrowed, and the import profit rebounded. In January 2026, the FOB prices of broadleaf pulp from Brazil and Indonesia increased by $20/ton [23][29]. - The price of imported needle pulp in the domestic market remained stable, and the price of imported broadleaf pulp was supported by cost and supply, with traders holding prices and waiting for real orders [31][33]. - The price of domestic broadleaf pulp increased, and the price of domestic chemical mechanical pulp remained stable [44][46]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [40]. - In November 2025, the inventory of European port pulp continued to decline, and the global pulp shipping volume also continued to decline [49]. - In October 2025, the shipment volume of W20 needle pulp was at a low level with high inventory; the inventory of broadleaf pulp was at a high level, but the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [51]. - In November 2025, the export volume of Chilean needle pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year; the export volume of four - country (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, Chile) broadleaf pulp to China decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54][61]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with needle pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and broadleaf pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [63]. 3.3.3 Demand - This week, the price of domestic offset paper remained stable, the price of copperplate paper was slightly adjusted, the price of white cardboard was stable with increased production, the price increase of household paper slowed down, and the terminal demand showed different trends in November [67][71][75][79][83]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 104,500 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous period [86]. - Overall, the port inventory was at a relatively low level within the year, and the sample inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend last week [93]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: Port inventory remained at a high level, and supply pressure persisted. As of January 4, 2026, Qingdao Port and Changshu Port had inventory accumulation during the holiday [96]. - Demand: In the downstream base paper market, the price of household paper was mainly range - bound, the overall trading atmosphere improved little, and market sentiment was cautious [96]. - View: It is expected that the market will lack a breakthrough driver in the short - term, and a weak balance will be formed by long and short factors at the current position. The market is predicted to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend within the range. Attention should be paid to the update of foreign market quotes and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [96]. - Valuation: From the perspective of basis, on the 31st, the basis of silver star needle pulp in Shandong was 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [96]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Adopt an interval operation idea [5200 - 5860]; 2) Inter - period: Observe; 3) Inter - variety: Observe [96].