国泰君安期货能源化工尿素周度报告-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term view: The urea market will be in a state of oscillation. The speculation in the fertilizer sector is suppressed by policies related to sulfur and phosphate fertilizers, resulting in neutral spot trading. However, due to the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak season in 2026, the 05 contract has a downside support [2]. - Medium - term view: The central price level of urea will move upwards. The fundamentals of urea have improved stage - by - stage with continuous procurement from reserves and the grassroots level. The subsequent upward momentum depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts related to urea basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts, including the basis of different enterprises (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), 5 - 9 monthly spreads, 1 - 5 monthly spreads, 9 - 1 monthly spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts. It also shows domestic and international spot price trends of urea [5][9][16][20]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - Capacity: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued. A number of enterprises added new production capacity, with a total of 664 million tons of new capacity added in 2025. Some enterprises also had device restarts and capacity replacements [24]. - Production Plan: The report lists the maintenance plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including the start and end dates of maintenance, raw materials, and reasons for maintenance [26]. - Output: Despite the production profit being around the break - even point, the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report also shows the historical trends of urea output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based urea output in China [27][28]. - Cost: The raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. The report provides cost calculations for different production processes (fixed - bed, fluidized - bed, natural gas) of urea in Shanxi region [30]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the historical profit trends of different production processes of urea [35]. - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, the export policy has tightened. The report provides historical data on China's urea net import (export) volume from 2018 - 2025 [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. The demand for different crops in different regions and seasons is presented, and the high - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [46][49]. - Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production gross profit, and inventory trends of compound fertilizers in China [53]. - Melamine: It presents the production gross profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate trends of melamine in China [57]. - Real Estate and Panels: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports show resilience. The report provides data on the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and real estate construction and completion area [60]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. The upstream inventory accumulation pattern continues. As of December 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0192 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week. As of December 25, 2025 (week 52), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from the previous week [63][66]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the historical price trends of large - granular urea FOB in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and large - granular urea CFR in Brazil [70][71][73].