国泰君安期货能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short fiber: In the short term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium term, it is weak. The contradiction between upstream and downstream continues, with short - term high - level volatility. The actual output of short fiber increases, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued to hold [7]. - Bottle chips: It shows a volatile and weak trend. The contradiction between upstream and downstream continues, with short - term high - level volatility. The actual supply in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Short Fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the futures margin is 1000 yuan/ton, which is relatively high. The futures margin is on the low side [8][96]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory operating rate has increased to 98.5%. Some factories plan to shut down before the Spring Festival, mainly around the end of January [7]. - Demand: Domestic terminal orders are weakening, and the yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are reducing their loads. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Some downstream factories may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. The short fiber is nominally destocking, but the physical inventory is accumulating. The short - fiber inventory index has risen to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [7]. - Strategy: 1) No unilateral strategy. 2) Observe long spreads at low prices and intervene when the valuation is reasonable. 3) Continue to hold the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF [8]. Upstream Viewpoint Summary No relevant information provided. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is neutral; the 02 - 03 processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, also neutral [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average operating rate this week is expected to reach 82.2%. Factory operations have resumed, and new devices are being put into production. Overall operations may decline from late January [9]. - Demand: Downstream operations have increased month - on - month. The average operation rate of beverage factories has recovered to around 70%. The operation rates of the edible oil and sheet sectors have also increased month - on - month. Exports from November to December are expected to be in the range of 55 - 60 tons. Factories are destocking, and the inventory has decreased to around 13 days [9]. - Strategy: 1) No unilateral strategy. 2) Take profit on short spreads and consider light - position long spreads (for contracts after March). 3) No cross - variety strategy [9]. Base and Calendar Spread - The price has回调 from a high level, the base has significantly recovered, the near - term calendar spread is still affected by deliverable products, and the far - end structure is gradually strengthening [21]. Spot Price and Important Spreads - The price has been rising continuously, and the trading sentiment is fair. The average weekly quotation is 6035 yuan/ton, and the average FOB price is 795 US dollars/ton [24]. - Compared with PVC, the substitution drive is low; compared with PP and other general plastics, the cost - effectiveness is prominent, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [26][27]. Production and Operation - Since 2024, the production capacity base has been expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 2168 tons (CCF caliber). After the new device of Fuhai is put into production, the production capacity base will rise to 2198 tons. The bottle - chip load this week is expected to rise to 82.2% [32]. Raw Materials - PTA load is low, and the processing fee has slightly recovered; ethylene glycol load has rebounded to a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating [33][39]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton. The bottle - chip processing fee is passively compressed, and the spot processing fee is around 450 yuan/ton. The export profit is around 725 - 750 yuan/ton [44]. Inventory - The inventory pressure of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is neutral, and the inventory has decreased to around 13 days. According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 323 tons, and in December it is 344 tons [49]. Device Changes - Some devices are under maintenance, and some new devices have been put into production. Pay attention to the progress of new device implementation [55][56]. Demand - The downstream operation rate has increased month - on - month. The operation of beverage enterprises has slightly recovered, the edible oil factory operation is at a medium - to - low level, and the demand for sheet materials is neutrally supported [59][60][61]. Global Trade Flow of Bottle Chips - Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has increased little in recent years. The downstream demand increment overseas will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. China's main bottle - chip export trade flows include China - Southeast Asia - South Asia, China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe, etc. [73]. Export Situation of Bottle Chips - In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 65.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to November 2025, the total export volume was 708.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [80]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Bottle Chips - There is a trend of inventory accumulation, but the amplitude is moderate [88]. Textile and Apparel Industry Retail - In November 2025, the retail sales of Chinese textile and apparel increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [132]. Export - In November 2025, the export of textile and apparel decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was 17491.9 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [140][144].