BZ、Eb周报：BZ处于区间上沿，关注逢高空的机会-20260104

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of pure benzene (BZ) and styrene (EB) is high, at the upper end of the range, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities starting next week [2][77]. - In the short - term, the market valuation is high. After the New Year's Day holiday, due to the geopolitical risks in crude oil, it is expected that crude oil will open higher on Monday. After the high opening, there are opportunities for short - selling. Currently, BZ is at the upper end of the range, and EB's valuation is significantly high, with the risk - free arbitrage window open [2][77]. - In the medium - term, PX - BZ should take short - term profit, the overseas gasoline blending drive is weakening, and the domestic chemical fundamentals maintain high inventory pressure. The PX market is overvalued as a whole, leading some downstream factories to sell raw materials and register a large number of 03 - contracts. The aromatics leading varieties are weakening [2][77]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Pure Benzene Domestic: In December 2025, 110,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, and it is expected to remain at 110,000 tons in January 2026. Some Shandong refineries will increase their loads after solving the quota problem. In January, attention should be paid to the increase in pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang project [2][75]. - Pure Benzene Import: The external market pressure is still high, and the selling pressure of South Korean pure benzene was high from November to December 2025. The imports are expected to remain at around 4.5 million tons in January 2026, and the imports after February are to be evaluated [2][75]. - Styrene: In December 2025, 85,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January 2026. After December, the plant operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the increase in production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's plant [2][75]. - Caprolactam (CPL): The negative feedback of CPL has started, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. It is expected that 40,000 tons of capacity will be under maintenance in December 2025 and 60,000 tons in January 2026 [2][75]. - Phenol: The operation is gradually picking up. In December 2025, 30,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, and 10,000 tons in January 2026. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new plant may be postponed [2][75]. - Aniline: In December 2025, 70,000 tons of capacity were under maintenance, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January 2026 may be lower than expected [2][76]. Demand - Styrene Downstream 3S Hard Rubber: Terminal household appliances are gradually entering the year - end procurement season, and demand has slightly improved. However, 3S still faces high inventory problems [2][76]. - Caprolactam: In December 2025, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project, and in January 2026, attention should be paid to the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei. Attention should be paid to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the plant [2][75]. Valuation - Absolute Price Valuation: Based on the crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,300 - 5,500 yuan/ton [2][77]. - EB Processing Fee: The processing fee is expected to expand in the short - term [2][77]. Strategy - Single - Side: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for BZ [2][77]. - Cross - Period: Not provided currently [77]. - Cross - Variety: Take short - term profit on PX - BZ [2][77].